BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund

Mega Cap's Big Week

Mega Caps’ Big Week

Last week, five Mega Cap companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta, released their results for the quarter ending 31 December 2023. All five companies are technology companies, with some similarities and differences in their respective businesses. There are overlaps in areas like cloud computing and advertising, but the approaches to leveraging and delivering technology services can differ significantly. And this affects their results differently. 

Here is a summary of the key highlights from the recent results. 

Alphabet 
Alphabet reported a 13% increase in quarterly revenue, reaching $86.3 billion, with a notable 52% growth in net profit, totalling $20.7 billion. During the earnings call, the company highlighted its strategic focus on leveraging AI to enhance existing products in addition to introducing new AI offerings such as the multi-modal (it can understand different formats of information) LLM: Gemini. Adverts from Youtube, the video-sharing platform owned by Alphabet, generated a revenue of $9.2 billion for the quarter. In comparison, Netflix generated $8.8 billion for its most recent quarter. Youtube don’t have to spend large amounts of money on creating content like other streaming platforms. Rather, content creators receive a share of advert and subscription revenues, based on how well their content does on the platform.  

Amazon 
For the quarter, Amazon witnessed a 14% increase in net sales, reaching $170.0 billion compared to the same quarter last year. Notably, the operating income showed a substantial increase from $2.7 billion in Q4 2022 to a whopping $13.2 billion in Q4 2023. Amazon have focussed on cost-cutting over the last 2 years whilst still prioritising faster and cheaper deliveries to clients. They have also continued to invest in certain strategic projects. The primary drivers of revenue and operating income growth over the last year are AWS, advertising, and third-party seller services. Amazon’s advertising service experienced a 27% growth in the quarter compared to the same period last year. 

Apple 
In the latest quarter, Apple reported a 2% increase in revenue at $119.2 billion, with net income growing by 13% to $33.9 billion. The company boasts an impressive installed base of 2.2 billion active devices. Like other major tech firms, Apple’s large and loyal user base gives it an advantage when launching new products or services. The net income growth is impressive given the low revenue growth. The expanding margin was a result of the services revenue increasing at a higher rate than what the cost of sales for the services segment increased by. 

Microsoft 
In the quarter, Microsoft reported robust financials with a revenue of $62.0 billion and a net profit of $21.9 billion, marking impressive year-on-year increases of 18% and 33%, respectively. Notably, the cloud revenue, encompassing Azure, Onedrive, and other cloud services, surged by 24% to $33.7 billion, constituting over 50% of Microsoft’s total earnings for the quarter. Despite this growth, operating expenses for Microsoft increased by 3% year over year. The company’s scalability as a tech giant allows it to boost revenue without a proportional increase in operating costs. 

Meta 
In the recent quarter, Meta achieved a revenue of $40.1 billion, accompanied by a net profit of $14.0 billion, marking a 201% increase in profit compared to the same quarter last year. Across all Meta products, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, there were 3.19 billion daily active users, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth. Noteworthy corporate changes include several restructurings throughout the year, resulting in a 22% reduction in headcount by the end of 2023 compared to the end of 2022. Additionally, Meta declared its first-ever dividend during this period. 
 

Amazon, Apple (via Berkshire Hathaway) and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.   

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
195.25
This Week
195.68
% Change YTD
3.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
75 084
This Week
74 174 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-3.54% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 455
This Week
15 629 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
4.11% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
4 891
This Week
4 959 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.96% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.79
This Week
18.90 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.28% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.38
This Week
20.37 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
0.99% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
83.09
This Week
77.40 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
0.56% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Mega Caps’ Big Week Read More »

ASML: Cycle Up

ASML: Cycle Up

ASML, the Dutch firm behind the production of lithography equipment essential for semiconductor manufacturing, released their 2023 full year financial results last week. In the semiconductor production process, lithography employs light to intricately design patterns on silicon. Semiconductors serve as foundational components (basically the brain) in all electronic devices: ranging from everyday appliances to the smartphones, and the high-powered Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) crucial for training and operating Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT.

Semiconductors vary widely in transistor count, with some containing tens of billions of transistors. The smaller the transistor, the greater the number that can be accommodated on a semiconductor, resulting in enhanced performance and energy efficiency. ASML’s cutting-edge lithography machines can create patterns with transistor sizes as small as 3nm (nano meters, i.e. one thousandth millionth of a meter), and they are currently building the capacity for their 2nm technology. Some argue that the technology they have developed is the most intricate ever devised by humankind.

ASML reported €27.6 billion in revenue for the past year, marking a 30% increase compared to the previous year. The net profit for the company increased 39%, reaching €7.8 billion for FY2023. ASML noted that the current fiscal year will yield results similar to FY2023, emphasizing the ongoing recovery of the semiconductor industry from the trough of its economic cycle. ASML’s primary clientele comprises major fabrication plants in the semiconductor sector, including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Notably, ASML’s clients have given them indications that they want to increase capacity for 2025. This is evidenced by a significant growth in their order book.

ASML holds a virtual global monopoly in the sale of lithography equipment. Due to this dominance and the fact that semiconductors play a vital role in military applications, companies dealing in such equipment require licenses to sell their products. The United States and several allied nations, including the Netherlands, have imposed trade restrictions, restricting the sale of their most equipment to China. ASML anticipates that this will result in a 10-15% decline of their sales to the Chinese market.

ASML is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
191.75
This Week
195.25
% Change YTD
3.67% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
72 661
This Week
75 084 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-2.35% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 311
This Week
15 455 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.96% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
4 840
This Week
4 891 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.54% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
19.01
This Week
18.79 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.68% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.71
This Week
20.38 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.04% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
78.63
This Week
83.09 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.95% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

ASML: Cycle Up Read More »

Lululemon: Three x 2

Lululemon: Three x 2

Lululemon’s three growth drivers are product innovation, guest experience and market expansion in athleisure wear. It aims to double (X2) its digital and men’s wear business to achieve a quadruple growth in its non-US sales by 2025. Lululemon is renowned for its athleisure designs catering to various sports codes.

Last week, Lululemon, a business owned by Lunar Capital, unveiled its Q3 2023 results, reported a notable 19% surge in revenue, reaching $2.2 billion for the quarter. Sales in North America saw a 12% increase, while international sales increased by 49%. The latter was mainly attributed to sales in China, which has recently encouraged growth in its economy through favourable policies.

Lululemon’s gross margin for the quarter increased by 110 basis points to achieve 57%. However, there was a 4% decrease in income from operations, settling at $338.1 million. This dip in profit was predominantly a result of an impairment charge incurred on their Mirror product range. Lululemon have decided to discontinue the sale of the hardware associated to the Mirror. Mirror is a subscription service to access thousands of streaming exercises. This service will continue in partnership with Peloton.

Lululemon’s stock price has surged 51% this year, reaching a share price $489.64 per share and boasting a market cap of $61.96 billion as of Friday. Several factors have contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding Lululemon:

  • Diverse Product Pipeline: Lululemon exhibits a clear product roadmap, introducing a variety of new products targeting different sports codes and children’s wear.
  • Robust Online Presence: For the quarter; 41% of Lululemon’s sales were conducted online. Scaling online sales has the potential to yield a higher operating margin compared to traditional in-store sales.
  • Thriving Asian Market: Lululemon has established a robust presence in the international market, particularly in Asia, where a growing demand for their products is evident.
  • Adaptability to Market Trends: The recent emergence of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic may benefit athleisure companies like Lululemon, as these clients need to replace their wardrobes and exercise more. Lululemon, along with other clothing brands, stands to benefit from this trend.

Lululemon is currently enjoying a favourable position and it appears that its Three x 2 strategy is working despite facing intense competition in the market. The challenges come not only from established competitors like Nike, who boast a stronger balance sheet, but also from emerging players entering the field. These newcomers have the potential to introduce novel styles and trends that might resonate more effectively with customers. Despite the competitive landscape, Lululemon’s strengths and strategic advantages position it well in navigating the dynamic and evolving nature of the market.

Lululemon is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

This marks the final stocktake for the year, and we’ll resume our updates in January. Our team will continue monitoring the market and the portfolios we manage; and supporting our clients. 

We extend our heartfelt gratitude for an incredible year and wish all our clients, staff and partners a joyful and safe festive season.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
183.29
This Week
184.35
% Change YTD
30.35% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
75 534
This Week
73 791 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
1.02% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
14 305
This Week
14 404 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
37.61% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 595
This Week
4 605 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
19.91% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.63
This Week
18.97 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.29
This Week
20.42 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.74% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
79.26
This Week
75.81 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-11.80% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Lululemon: Three x 2 Read More »

Walmart – History of Opportunity

Walmart – History of Opportunity

The first Walmart store opened its doors in 1962 in Arkansas, USA. Sam Walton, the founder, perceived a potential niche for discount retail stores catering to customers in rural areas in the US. Traditionally, these customers had been neglected by conventional department stores concentrating their efforts in larger cities. Today, Walmart strives to cater to customers across both rural and urban landscapes. In the United States, 90% of the population lives within a 16 km radius of a Walmart store.

Walmart’s business model revolves around the fundamental principle of delivering products and services to customers at the most competitive prices. To achieve the goal of offering the “Lowest price possible,” Walmart employs various strategic tactics, including:

  • Economies of scale: Walmart acquires products in substantial quantities, securing a lower per-unit cost from suppliers.
  • Everyday low prices: Rather than relying on periodic promotions, Walmart is committed to maintaining consistently low prices across a diverse range of products.
  • Centralized distribution centres: Each distribution centre supports 90 to 100 stores within a 240 km radius.

These initiatives have propelled Walmart to emerge as one of the primary price leaders in the retail sector. Walmart establishes the pricing standards that competitors are forced to match.

Last week, Walmart released their Q3 2023 results. Revenue increased by 5.2% compared to the same quarter last year, reaching $160.8 billion. Meanwhile, the “cost of sales” experienced a more modest increase of 4.8%, resulting in a gross margin of 24.6%. The “Operating, selling, general, and administrative” expenses decreased by 3.1%, settling at $33.4 billion. This reduction led to a 130% increase in operating income, soaring to $6.2 billion for the quarter.

In low margin businesses, the operational leverage becomes evident through variances between the change in revenue and the change in costs. When companies enact cost-cutting measures or experience revenue growth outpacing cost growth, operating income grows at a higher rate than revenue. Conversely, if costs were to outpace revenue growth, the operating income of the company would be leveraged in the opposite direction.

Walmart executives indicated that the US consumer was starting to show some levels of stress due to high interest rates. This, despite their very good results impacted the share price, which dropped by about 8% since the announcement of their results.

Walmart is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
176.17
This Week
176.17
% Change YTD
24.56% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
71 39
This Week
73 921 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.19% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
13 798
This Week
14 125 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
34.95% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 415
This Week
4 514 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
17.55 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.74
This Week
18.34 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
8.01% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.02
This Week
20.00 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
8.46% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
81.62
This Week
80.50 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-6.34% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Walmart – History of Opportunity Read More »

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