Walmart – The Best Offense starts in Defense
Walmart – The Best Offense starts in Defense Read More »
Last week, Walmart released their Q1 2025 results. The group’s revenue reached $161.5 billion for the quarter, growing 6% year-on-year. Operating income rose by 9.6% to $6.8 billion. Walmart’s gross margin increased from 23.7% a year ago to 24.1% this quarter. This improvement was due to fewer inventory markdowns compared to last year. Additionally, Walmart’s advertising business, which typically has a higher gross margin than general retail, has been growing faster than other parts of the business, contributing to the overall margin increase. With this in mind, Walmart’s management team stressed that they are trying to keep their product gross margin as low as possible so as to incentivise more customers to shop with them. Walmart indicated that they have seen a meaningful increase in higher-income earners shopping at their stores. Walmart’s e-commerce business grew by 22% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, showing good returns on their technology spend.
Walmart and other large retailers generally perform well in inflationary environments. They can buy in bulk, which helps lower their prices. Additionally, when they place orders in advance, they secure prices at that time. Once the goods are delivered and ready to be sold, the new, higher inflationary prices are evident in the economy. This allows them to sell at those higher prices or slightly less, giving the impression of saving customers money compared to smaller and/or less efficient businesses that order closer to the time of sale.
Walmart faces intense competition worldwide. They not only compete against local retailers but also against giants like Amazon, which has a highly profitable cloud business. From its inception, Walmart has focused on serving underrepresented locations, offering customers an all-in-one store with “everyday low prices.”
Walmart is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio Clients.
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Walmart – The Best Offense starts in Defense Read More »
Amazon, once an online bookseller, has gradually transformed into the expansive “everything store.” Utilizing its efficient fulfillment infrastructure, Amazon swiftly delivers both its own products and third-party products worldwide. While its e-commerce segment drives the bulk of revenue, the true profit engine lies in its cloud division: AWS. In the latest quarter, Amazon’s North American e-commerce unit generated $86 billion in revenue with a 5.7% operating margin, while AWS generated $25 billion in revenue with a notable 37.6% operating margin. Amazon’s free cash flow was $50.1bn for the last twelve months, demonstrating its significant financial strength.
Amazon is renowned for identifying pain points within their own operations and devising solutions to overcome them, and then selling that solution as a service to third parties. In this way, they turn cost centres into profit centres. When they managed their internet servers, they noticed significant periods of dormancy in their IT infrastructure, punctuated by occasional spikes in usage. Recognizing this, Amazon seized the opportunity to create AWS. Instead of companies needing to set up and manage their IT infrastructure, Amazon does it for a fee, based on usage. Today, global enterprises rely on AWS to power their entire operations. Now, AWS is increasingly being employed by companies to train their generative AI models. Amazon observed that many companies are still in the training phase of their generative AI products, and that the products aren’t available for the market just yet.
Amazon has followed the same principle with regards to their fulfillment service. Companies are able to sell their products internationally on Amazon’s platform, while not needing to go through the process of figuring out the complicated rates and tariffs they are required to pay in each country.
Amazon’s reach extends far beyond e-commerce and cloud computing. They also run a video-streaming platform, own a significant share of an electric car company (Rivian), and operate an advertising business integrated with their e-commerce operations, which generated $11.8 billion in revenue this recent quarter. Advertising, known for its high operating margins, is likely to contribute to Amazon’s growing profitability.
Yet, amidst their diverse ventures, Amazon faces formidable competition. Beyond rival e-commerce and traditional retail businesses, they contend with tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft. Big Tech is also facing increased regulatory pressure around the world.
Amazon’s origins in a low-margin environment have instilled a cost-effective mindset into their DNA. They have shown, time and again, how to develop new products and services while keeping costs low.
Amazon and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.
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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Amazon – Not your everyday Bookseller Read More »
Microsoft unveiled their Q3 2024 results last week. Revenue for the quarter reached $61.9 billion, marking a 17% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, net income for the same period amounted to $21.9 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year rise. The primary growth driver for Microsoft’s revenue was their cloud services segment, encompassing products and services such as OneDrive and Azure. Cloud services revenue for the quarter totalled $35.1 billion, increasing by 23% year-over-year. As of Friday, 26 April, Microsoft held the title of the world’s most valued stock, boasting a valuation of just over $3 trillion.
Microsoft has been among the beneficiaries of the Large Language Model hype that surged last year and this year. Microsoft has invested approximately $13 billion in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. Microsoft does not have any ownership stake in OpenAI. But, they are entitled to a share of profit distributions. Microsoft’s cloud service, Azure, enables businesses to deploy their AI applications using their servers. However, Microsoft has stated that the demand for their AI services currently surpasses their current capacity. Consequently, they are ramping up their capital expenditure. In the latest quarter, they spent $14 billion on capital expenditure, exceeding the anticipated $11 billion.
Microsoft encounters formidable competition from other well-resourced rivals such as Amazon and Alphabet in the cloud computing/AI arena. As companies expand, scaling their market share becomes progressively challenging compared to their initial growth trajectory. Frequently, firms seeking to increase their market presence through acquisitions find themselves paying a premium to entice shareholders. Recently, Microsoft concluded its acquisition of the gaming giant Activision for just under $70 billion. Only time will reveal whether Microsoft has potentially overpaid for the company, or whether they were able to use their platform to create a more compelling gaming experience for users.
Microsoft not only provides cloud and gaming services, it’s Office suite of business tools is widely used in businesses and homes worldwide, it also provides on-line security, data management, virtual meeting services (Teams) and search services, amongst others.
Microsoft and Amazon held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.
Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.
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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Microsoft: On Cloud Nine Read More »
Semiconductors or chips regulate electrical flow in electronic devices. They are vital for various products like computers, artificial intelligence (AI) systems, smartphones, automotive vehicles, and military equipment. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) manufactures roughly 90% of the world’s cutting-edge chips, while ASML crafts lithography machinery essential for making these chips smaller and more energy-efficient.
Last week, TSMC and ASML released their Q1 2024 results. TSMC saw a 16.5% increase in revenue to NT$592 billion (with an average USD/NTD exchange rate of 31.4) compared to the same quarter last year. While ASML reported €5.29 billion in revenue for the quarter, marking a 21.5% decline from the same period last year. Due to the recent interest around AI, high performance computing chips accounted for 46% of TSMC’s revenue for the quarter.
ASML believes that the semiconductor industry is going to go through a transitory year this year. Orders for its machinery for Q1 2024 dipped nearly 4% compared to the same quarter last year and decreased by 60% compared to the previous quarter. Some of ASML’s latest extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines go for around €350 million each. Consequently, manufacturers must be certain about their timing for acquiring lithography equipment. ASML anticipates its revenue for the year to remain consistent with 2023 levels. Subsequently, it’s positioning itself to escalate production for 2025.
The US Chips Act aims to encourage semiconductor manufacturers to establish plants within the United States. TSMC and Samsung have each secured approximately $6.5 billion in grants and subsidies to construct facilities in the US. ASML stands to benefit significantly from the Chips Act, given its near monopoly on the sale of EUV lithography machinery worldwide. However, due to the scale of these projects, there is an elevated risk of delays. Consequently, ASML faces the challenge of potentially building up inventory without the ability to deliver products, whilst these new facilities are being constructed. This could impact their near-term financial performance. However, when these new facilities are ready, they would need to be furbished with ASML’s lithography machines, which will likely be very positive for ASML.
The demand for more and more computing power to process the growing demand for AI, smartphones, EV’s and larger and more complex cloud service providers; is adding strain to energy grids. This is driving both the design and manufacture of more energy efficient semiconductors, as well as alternative energy solutions.
ASML is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.
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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Gearing Up – A Semiconductor Story Read More »
Last week, JP Morgan released its Q1 2024 results. The quarterly net revenue increased to $41.9 billion, marking a 9% increase from the preceding quarter. Net income also saw a significant increase, reaching $13.4 billion, up 44% from the previous quarter. Provisions for credit losses witnessed a decline of 32%, settling at $1.9 billion. JP Morgan upheld a steady return on equity of 17%.
Despite the increase in revenue, Net Interest Income (NII) declined 4% due to deposit margin compression and the overall amount of deposits decreasing. This was mainly seen in the Consumer and Community Banking (CCB) section of JP Morgan. However, due to the rise in the US equities market last year, CCB investment assets were up 25%.
JP Morgan expressed that despite the strong economic indicators, such as the strong unemployment rate and wages in the US, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market such as the ongoing geopolitical tensions and a large number of persistent inflationary pressures. JP Morgan also highlighted that the bank has not experienced this level of quantitative tightening at this scale before. The effects are likely only going to be seen over the long term. These comments likely caused the stock price to slide by just over 6% following the results disclosure.
JP Morgan benefitted from the recent regional banking crisis in the US when they purchased First Republic. This contributed to their growth in assets, revenues, and profits. JP Morgan prides itself on its “fortress balance sheet”; which in turn allows it to take advantage of large deals when they become available.
JP Morgan is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.
Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.
Our email address is: [email protected]
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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
JP Morgan and the Fortress Balance Sheet Read More »
When companies grow to become large/mega cap businesses, they face both challenges and opportunities when they try to grow further. The specific circumstances for each company’s position significantly influences the potential or the impediments for continued expansion. Below are a few examples of some of the challenges and opportunities these companies may face.
The Challenges
Acquisitions
In acquisitions, large companies face a limited pool of targets due to fewer medium and large-sized companies compared to the number of small companies. Factors like compatibility and pricing reduce this pool further. With greater financial resources, acquiring companies often pay a premium for these companies to entice them to join. This trend is evident across numerous instances. For instance, in 2014, Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $19 billion. A decade later, WhatsApp boasts over 2 billion users but generates minimal revenue, estimated at around $1.2 billion for the previous year. Warren Buffett also regularly advises the lack of potential acquisition targets that Berkshire Hathaway can make to make a meaningful difference in their portfolio.
Product line and different markets
As companies achieve significant market share in different markets, introducing new products or expanding into new markets may not provide the same revenue and profit increases they previously enjoyed. Nike is currently experiencing this. Despite Nike rolling out numerous new products Nike’s revenue has had a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% for the last 2 fiscal years.
Corporate Constraints
As companies grow, their delivery platforms and teams need to be expanded to support their enlarged customer base and higher volumes. This may have been achieved with previous generation technologies and smaller more agile and flexible teams. With a larger client base and higher volumes and a complex platform, they may not be as agile as they previously were, increasing the time and costs of rolling out new products, services, and features; and allowing smaller, more nimble competitors to steal a march on them. Google is experiencing this with the roll-out of their AI tools, for example.
The Opportunities
Platforms
Businesses built as platforms, i.e. where multiple services are provided to clients, and new products or services can be added very quickly, however have an advantage despite their large/mega size. As platform businesses Microsoft, for example can expand by adding new features and services to their platform and further entrench existing and new customers into their ecosystem. Microsoft’s 365 product suite facilitates bundling various products, making it challenging for customers to switch once integrated. Moreover, they swiftly deploy new products to a vast customer base. For instance, between 2017 and 2023, the number of Microsoft Teams users surged from 2 million to 320 million, solidifying its leadership in virtual meetings arena.
There are many opportunities for companies to grow, but as they keep on growing there are certain challenges that they face. Some companies have a better ability to deal with these challenges than others.
Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.
Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.
Our email address is: [email protected]
Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Balancing the Scale Read More »
Last week, Lululemon, the Vancouver based athleisure company, released their Q4 2023 results. The yearly revenue increased by 18.5% to $9.6 billion, accompanied by an 81% increase in Lululemon’s net income to $1.5 billion. This surge in net income can be attributed mainly to a notable decrease in the 2023 impairment charge. In the preceding year, Lululemon faced an impairment charge of $407 million, whereas this year’s charge stands at $74 million. 2022’s impairment charge primarily comprises of the impairment of its investment in the home-workout product-range: “Mirror.”
The Americas segment, making up 79% of total sales, experienced a modest revenue increase of nearly 12%. In contrast, the international segment, representing the remaining 21% of sales, witnessed a robust 54% revenue surge. During the earnings call, management articulated their aspiration for the international segment to contribute 50% of sales in the future. They acknowledged a deceleration in the demand growth rate for their products in the Americas’ market. Consequently, they adjusted their annual sales growth projection to around the mid-teens. This adjustment led to a 15% decline in Lululemon’s share price on the day.
Lululemon is investing for growth, primarily targeting the expansion of its brand visibility and bolstering its presence in international markets, particularly in China, where demand for its products has been substantial. To enhance brand recognition, the company is focusing on sponsoring athletes and teams. Notably, they are backing the Canadian national team for the 2024 Summer Olympics. Lululemon intends to address underrepresented markets by opening around 10 stores in the US and 30 stores in other parts of the world.
Lululemon contends with lots of competition in the athleisure sector, including major players like Nike, as well as various niche athleisure brands. Lululemon is a luxury brand within this competitive landscape. Amidst heightened global economic uncertainty, consumers tend to slow down their spending on luxury goods.
Lululemon is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.
Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.
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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Making Lululemon-ade Read More »
Over the last few decades, Walmart has become the largest retailer in the world. Back in 1962, Sam Walton opened the first Walmart store in Arkansas. The cornerstone of the company’s strategy was delivering a diverse array of products at consistently low prices. With a keen eye on expansion, Walmart targeted the underserved rural regions of America. Today, Walmart operates over 10,000 stores worldwide.
Walmart is able to offer “everyday low prices” by focusing on the following:
A few weeks ago, Walmart released their Q4 2024 results. Revenues increased 5.7% to $173bn for the quarter. While operating income increased by 30.45% to $7.3bn. Walmart, along with other retailers are operationally leveraged. If their revenue increases at a higher rate than their operating costs, their operating income grows at a higher rate than their revenue. The converse is true if their operating expenses grow at a higher rate than their revenue.
Walmart is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients
Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.
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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Companies striving for growth in a sluggish economy face formidable challenges when trying to grow, particularly those operating as supermarket retailers with an already large presence in the country. Another way for expansion involves gaining market share from competitors, a strategy used by Shoprite, South Africa’s largest supermarket retailer. Shoprite’s strength comes from the some of the following attributes:
Last week, Shoprite released their H1 2024 results. Revenue for the business increased by 13.9% to reach R121.1bn for the period. Excluding the revenue growth attributable to the acquisition of Massmart stores, Shoprite’s supermarket segment grew by 11.2%. While Gross Profit increased by 14.7% to R28.6bn, representing a 23.6% gross margin. Trading profit for the period increased by 10.7% to R6.7bn.
One of the standout metrics was Checkers Sixty60. Its revenue has grown by more than 60%. The app is leading more customers to the Checkers brand, resulting in market share growth. Checkers also use their stores as mini distribution centers, which means they don’t have to build and create new distribution centers for the Sixty60 purpose. Pieter Englebrecht, the CEO, has said these are the reasons this segment in profitable.
The supermarket retail arena is fiercely competitive, with customers primarily prioritizing price and product availability. Supermarkets operate within a framework of relatively low gross and net margins, making them highly susceptible to shifts in costs. Their path to profitability predominantly hinges on scaling their business to achieve higher sales volumes while concurrently maintaining consistent operating costs.
Shoprite is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund.
Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.
Our email address is: [email protected]
Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Beneath every artificial intelligence application lies a vast sea of data. Snowflake allows companies to store their structured, semi-structured, and unstructured data in one location, and access it from anywhere around the world. Moreover, companies can seamlessly tap into third-party datasets through Snowflake’s Market Place. Currently, Snowflake is expanding its suite by integrating Generative AI tools into their products, enabling users to interact in natural language with Snowflake applications. Sridhar Ramaswamy has replaced Frank Slootman as CEO, as Snowflake tries to further develop its AI strategy. Ramaswamy held the position of Senior Vice President of AI at Snowflake.
For Q4 2024, Snowflake’s net revenue increased 33%, reaching $775 million. Simultaneously, Snowflake’s operating loss increased by 5.7%, now standing at ($276mn). A positive shift is evident in Snowflake’s gross margin, which increased from 73% a year ago to 74% this quarter. Additionally, the operating loss margin improved, decreasing from -44% a year ago to -36% this quarter.
Breaking down the expenses, Sales & Marketing, and Research & Development each constituted 47% of the revenue. Notably, a significant portion of this allocation was attributed to stock-based compensation. This practice is prevalent among smaller companies like Snowflake that have limited financial resources and use stock options to top up cash payments for staff. The aim is to incentivise employees to stay at their company for longer by offering them a higher amount of equity. In contrast, larger entities such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, can rely more on cash-based compensation to secure top-tier talent.
Snowflake faces stiff competition from other well-resourced AI businesses, including Microsoft and Amazon. This compels them to make significant investments in sales and marketing for customer acquisition and engagement. Snowflake operates on a pay-per-use model, which has its own set of challenges. Companies tend to utilise less of their Snowflake credits during times of perceived uncertainty. Snowflake’s focus is to get more businesses to join their data cloud, while making their products easier for individuals to use.
Snowflake, Microsoft, and Amazon are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.
Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.
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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.
Snowflake – Trying to be a Snowball Read More »
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