Nike

Nike: Will they Do It?

Nike: Will they Do It?

Nike, which was expected to be ideally positioned for “running mania”, released its Q1 2025 results. Revenue for the quarter declined by 10% year-over-year, reaching $11.6 billion. Gross margin improved by 120 basis points to 45.4%, while net profits fell by 26%, amounting to $1.05 billion. Nike’s share price has dropped over 22% this year and more than 50% since its peak in November 2021. 

Nike, renowned for its innovative products, memorable advertising campaigns, and strong athlete partnerships, has been losing market share to both established and emerging brands such as New Balance, On, and Hoka. 

Under the previous CEO, John Donahoe, the company concentrated on expanding its direct-to-consumer business model. This included increasing capacity for its e-commerce channel and further developing Nike-run stores. The goal was to gain better control over sales and improve the bottom line by avoiding consignment fees to wholesale retailers. However, this strategy strained relationships with wholesale partners, leading some to remove Nike products from their stores. 

This approach seemed adequate during the COVID-19 pandemic when online shopping surged. However, as demand for Nike’s products began to decline, the company struggled to maintain growth. 

The new CEO, Elliott Hill, has placed a strong emphasis on mending relationships with wholesale partners and acknowledged that Nike had deviated from its core strengths of product innovation and designing athletic footwear. Hill believes that that Nike will only be able to generate strong demand for their lifestyle products after they accomplish the feat of designing great athletics wear. 

While turnarounds are challenging to implement, especially in a highly competitive fashion and high-performance sports sector, Nike possesses a relatively strong balance sheet with $8.5 billion in cash. Time will determine if they can Do It.  

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This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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Moving ON - Weekly Stocktake with Danyaal

Moving ON

On Holdings, owners of the On Cloud sports brand best known for its distinctive running shoes, recently released its Q2 2024 results. The company reported a revenue of CHF 567.7 million, marking a 28% increase year-over-year. Operating income rose by 20% to CHF 47.3 million. The brand has a strong presence in the U.S., where 65% of last quarter’s sales originated, showing a growth of over 24% compared to the same period last year. Although the Asia-Pacific region was the fastest-growing market with nearly 74% growth, it only accounted for 10% of the company’s net sales for the quarter. 

The bulk of On Holdings’ revenue (95%) comes from its shoe sales, which grew by nearly 27% year-over-year. As a relatively small brand compared to giants like Nike and Adidas, On Holdings faces both opportunities and challenges. The company has significant potential for growth by expanding into new regions and diversifying its product range.  

One of On Holdings’ recent innovations is a new shoe that is sprayed onto a person’s foot, weighing just 158g for the women’s version. Helen Obiri, a renowned Kenyan middle- and long-distance runner, trained in these shoes for the recent Olympics and was so impressed that she wore them during the Paris Olympics marathon, where she won a bronze medal. This reflects On Holdings’ strategy of collaborating with athletes to design products that cater specifically to their sports. 

ON Holdings

On Holdings does however operate in a highly competitive market, facing rivals ranging from smaller brands like Deckers, which owns the popular Hoka brand, to industry giants like Nike and Adidas. Fashion trends can shift rapidly, and consumer preferences are fickle, posing a constant challenge. For now, On Holdings is capitalizing on current trends, but the landscape could change quickly. 

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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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Nike

Nike Just Not Doing It

Last week Nike released their Q4 and FY2024 results. Revenue for the year was $51.4 billion, flat compared to 2023. Net Income for the year was $5.7 billion, up 12% compared to the same period last year. Below is a graph showing key metrics for Nike over the last four years. Since 2021, Nike’s revenue has increased just over 13 percent. While its net income has remained flat.

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Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Nike had already started investing in its Nike Direct business, which includes company-operated stores and its e-commerce division. This focus on e-commerce proved beneficial both before and during the pandemic when consumers were unable to leave their homes. Nike Direct accounted for just under 44% of Nike Brand revenue in 2024, compared to 32% in 2019. The wholesale business, which sells to third-party stores on consignment, accounted for 56% of Nike Brand revenue in 2024.

Over the last few years, running has surged in popularity, likely due to pent-up demand from the Covid-19 pandemic. The London Marathon received a record 840,000 applications for the ballot for the 2025 race, surpassing the previous record of 578,000 in 2024. Despite its roots in running, Nike has struggled to capitalize on this trend, losing market share to competitors like On Holding, Hoka (owned by Deckers), and Brooks.

Fashion is fickle. Brands that are successful today may not be next year, and vice versa. Nike faces the challenge of growing revenue from an already high base. For example, Hoka’s 2024 revenue was $1.11 billion, roughly 2% of Nike’s 2024 revenue. Nike has better financial strength compared to many of its competitors to withstand setbacks. It could possibly even use this to pivot its company to get back in favour with consumers.

Nike’s share price is down from a peak of $179.10 (November 2021) to $74.85 per share at the time of writing.

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Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
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Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
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Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
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Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
212.51
This Week
214.18
% Change YTD
13.73% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
79 768
This Week
80 244 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
4.36% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
17 689
This Week
17 733 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
18.13% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 465
This Week
5 460 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
14.48% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
17.95
This Week
18.17 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-0.71% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.21
This Week
19.47 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-3.47% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
85.07
This Week
84.87 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.26% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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