VCS Agency

Snowflake – Trying to be a Snowball

Snowflake – Trying to be a Snowball

Beneath every artificial intelligence application lies a vast sea of data. Snowflake allows companies to store their structured, semi-structured, and unstructured data in one location, and access it from anywhere around the world. Moreover, companies can seamlessly tap into third-party datasets through Snowflake’s Market Place. Currently, Snowflake is expanding its suite by integrating Generative AI tools into their products, enabling users to interact in natural language with Snowflake applications. Sridhar Ramaswamy has replaced Frank Slootman as CEO, as Snowflake tries to further develop its AI strategy. Ramaswamy held the position of Senior Vice President of AI at Snowflake.

For Q4 2024, Snowflake’s net revenue increased 33%, reaching $775 million. Simultaneously, Snowflake’s operating loss increased by 5.7%, now standing at ($276mn). A positive shift is evident in Snowflake’s gross margin, which increased from 73% a year ago to 74% this quarter. Additionally, the operating loss margin improved, decreasing from -44% a year ago to -36% this quarter.

Breaking down the expenses, Sales & Marketing, and Research & Development each constituted 47% of the revenue. Notably, a significant portion of this allocation was attributed to stock-based compensation. This practice is prevalent among smaller companies like Snowflake that have limited financial resources and use stock options to top up cash payments for staff. The aim is to incentivise employees to stay at their company for longer by offering them a higher amount of equity. In contrast, larger entities such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, can rely more on cash-based compensation to secure top-tier talent.

Snowflake faces stiff competition from other well-resourced AI businesses, including Microsoft and Amazon. This compels them to make significant investments in sales and marketing for customer acquisition and engagement. Snowflake operates on a pay-per-use model, which has its own set of challenges. Companies tend to utilise less of their Snowflake credits during times of perceived uncertainty. Snowflake’s focus is to get more businesses to join their data cloud, while making their products easier for individuals to use.

Snowflake, Microsoft, and Amazon are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
207.05
This Week
205.68
% Change YTD
9.21% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
74 213
This Week
72 775 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-5.36% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 997
This Week
16 274 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
8.41% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 089
This Week
5 137 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.70% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
19.31
This Week
19.09 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
4.32% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.89
This Week
20.68 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
2.53% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
81.66
This Week
83.33 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
8.26%Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Snowflake – Trying to be a Snowball Read More »

Nvidia: Fear of Missing Out

Nvidia – Fear of Missing Out

Companies and nations are investing substantial funds to keep pace in the AI race, focusing on establishing their proprietary artificial intelligence infrastructure. Nvidia is currently reaping the rewards of this trend. They are a semiconductor designer specializing in high-powered chips crucial for training models in accelerated computing and generative AI applications. In addition to these chips, Nvidia provides the essential components that link them, forming supercomputers. This ranges from the switches and wiring to the requisite coding language (CUDA) necessary for running these advanced models on their chips.

Last week, Nvidia unveiled its Q4 2024 results. Their revenue surged by 126% compared to FY2023, reaching $60.1 billion for FY2024. Net profit increased by 581%, soaring to $29.7 billion. Noteworthy is the substantial improvement in the gross profit margin, escalating from 56.9% in FY2023 to an impressive 72.7% in FY2024. Nvidia, as the designer, relies on semiconductor fabrication plants, such as TSMC, for chip manufacturing. This explains the disproportionately higher growth rates in gross and net profit compared to revenue, highlighting Nvidia’s operational leverage.

Companies and countries can’t get enough of Nvidia’s chips, with demand surpassing their current supply capabilities. Nevertheless, there remains a significant concentration among chip buyers. In Q4 2024, 40% of Nvidia’s data centre revenue was attributed to the three primary cloud service providers – Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. These industry giants are still in the early phases of developing accelerated computing and generative AI products. This prompts the following questions:

  1. Is AI a true megatrend, or will it fade away?
  2. Will companies be able to generate sufficient additional revenue or enhance productivity to justify their expenditures on AI technology, including Nvidia’s chips?
  3. What are the enduring implications on society?

Nvidia’s stock price has surged by more than 230% in the past year due to their rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand. However, formidable challenges persist. Intense competition looms, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google striving to develop their own semiconductors for data centres, aiming to reduce dependency on Nvidia. The company faces towering expectations, and even minor deviations from anticipated performance can have a significant impact on their stock price.

Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
203.05
This Week
207.05
% Change YTD
9.94% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
73 616
This Week
74 213 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-3.49% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 776
This Week
15 997 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.56% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 006
This Week
5 089 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.69% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.87
This Week
19.31 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
5.52% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.34
This Week
20.89 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.57% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
83.23
This Week
81.66 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
6.09%Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Nvidia – Fear of Missing Out Read More »

ON Top of It

ON Top of It

Founded in 2010, ON is a sports apparel and shoe brand established in Zurich, Switzerland. Olivier Bernhard, a retired athlete, envisioned crafting a running shoe that offered a completely different running sensation compared to what was on the market. Early prototypes featured sections of hosepipes attached to the bottom of the shoe.

In their most recent financial report as of September 30, 2023, ON revealed total sales amounting to CHF* 480 million (USD/CHF = 0.915) and a net income of CHF 58 million. Both revenue and net income experienced impressive growth, surging by 47% and 184%, respectively, compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Notably, ON’s gross margin expanded from 57.1% in Q3 2022 to 59.9% in Q3 2023. This expansion was attributed to ON’s strategy of refraining from discounting products to boost sales, coupled with an increased proportion of direct consumer sales through their website.

During their earnings call, ON emphasized a strategic focus on increasing sales through their Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel while also nurturing relationships with third-party sellers. Despite being in its relative infancy, ON is gearing up for expansion by diversifying its product lines to captivate a broader customer base. Like many sports brands, ON is leveraging the allure of sports stars to enhance brand recognition. Given ON’s size, they need to use innovative approaches to attract “superstar” athletes. In 2019, they successfully secured Roger Federer as a collaborator by issuing equity to him. ON’s recent successes on the sports field include Helen Obiri winning the Boston Marathon wearing ON CloudTr1 1 and Iga Swaitek who also wears ON shoes on the tennis court.

Retail brands operate in a fiercely competitive environment. They generally require years to establish genuine customer loyalty. To stay competitive, these companies must consistently invest in brand and product development, while maintaining their brand identity.

*CHF = Swiss Francs

On Holdings is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
202.23
This Week
203.05
% Change YTD
7.82% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
73 423
This Week
73 616 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-4.26% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 991
This Week
15 776 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
5.09% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 027
This Week
5 006 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
4.94% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
19.04
This Week
18.87 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
3.11% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.54
This Week
20.34 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
0.84% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
81.92
This Week
83.23 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
8.13% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

ON Top of It Read More »

Novo – Lilly: Building Capacity

Novo – Lilly: Building Capacity

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are both major pharmaceutical giants with a focus on developing drugs for chronic diseases. Two of the main common areas they focus on are diabetes and, most recently, obesity. The diabetes and obesity drugs that the two companies are developing are glucagon-like-peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists. These medications mimic the actions of the GLP-1 hormone which regulates blood sugar, slows digestion, and suppresses appetite.

Last week, Eli Lilly released their Q4 2023 results; and the week before, Novo Nordisk released their Q4 2023 results. Eli Lilly’s revenue increased by 28% to $9.4 billion while its profit increased by 13% to $2.2 billion for the quarter. The lower profit percentage increase was a result of expenses incurred in the acquisition of a few up-and-coming companies.

Novo Nordisk’s revenue grew 37% to DKK 65.9 billion. And their net profit grew 62% to DKK 21.9 billion. As of 9 Feb 2024, 1 USD = 6.9 DKK. Novo Nordisk recently became the largest listed company in Europe and has been a material contributor to Denmark’s economy.

Since the beginning of the year, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s share prices have increased by 24.9% and 18.7% respectively. In the US, it is estimated that around 40% of adults suffer from obesity. The recent drive in the share price for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk has mainly been driven by the demand for their obesity drugs.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are at different stages in the production and approval of their respective obesity drugs.

  1. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy has been available in eight countries since 2021 but only reached approval for all dosage levels in the US in December 2022. Due to overwhelming demand and limited supply, Novo Nordisk had to halt the sale of lower dosages to prioritize patients requiring higher doses who were facing stock shortages. The efficacy of the treatment is contingent on consistent, long-term commitment to the prescription and treatment regime. Novo Nordisk is actively working to expand production capacity to meet the needs of patients relying on these drugs.
  2. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound obesity product received approval and was launched in the US in the last quarter of 2023. Notably, even before securing approval for the drug’s sale, Eli Lilly had initiated the construction of production capacity to ensure a they could hit the ground running once they received approval.

As of now, Novo Nordisk holds the lead in the race. However, the demand for these treatments remains substantial, providing ample opportunity for both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to thrive in the market.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
195.68
This Week
202.23
% Change YTD
7.38% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
74 174
This Week
73 423 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-4.51% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 629
This Week
15 991 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.52% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
4 959
This Week
5 027 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
5.38% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.90
This Week
19.04 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
4.04% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.37
This Week
20.54 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.83% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
77.40
This Week
81.92 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.43% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Novo – Lilly: Building Capacity Read More »

Mega Cap's Big Week

Mega Caps’ Big Week

Last week, five Mega Cap companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta, released their results for the quarter ending 31 December 2023. All five companies are technology companies, with some similarities and differences in their respective businesses. There are overlaps in areas like cloud computing and advertising, but the approaches to leveraging and delivering technology services can differ significantly. And this affects their results differently. 

Here is a summary of the key highlights from the recent results. 

Alphabet 
Alphabet reported a 13% increase in quarterly revenue, reaching $86.3 billion, with a notable 52% growth in net profit, totalling $20.7 billion. During the earnings call, the company highlighted its strategic focus on leveraging AI to enhance existing products in addition to introducing new AI offerings such as the multi-modal (it can understand different formats of information) LLM: Gemini. Adverts from Youtube, the video-sharing platform owned by Alphabet, generated a revenue of $9.2 billion for the quarter. In comparison, Netflix generated $8.8 billion for its most recent quarter. Youtube don’t have to spend large amounts of money on creating content like other streaming platforms. Rather, content creators receive a share of advert and subscription revenues, based on how well their content does on the platform.  

Amazon 
For the quarter, Amazon witnessed a 14% increase in net sales, reaching $170.0 billion compared to the same quarter last year. Notably, the operating income showed a substantial increase from $2.7 billion in Q4 2022 to a whopping $13.2 billion in Q4 2023. Amazon have focussed on cost-cutting over the last 2 years whilst still prioritising faster and cheaper deliveries to clients. They have also continued to invest in certain strategic projects. The primary drivers of revenue and operating income growth over the last year are AWS, advertising, and third-party seller services. Amazon’s advertising service experienced a 27% growth in the quarter compared to the same period last year. 

Apple 
In the latest quarter, Apple reported a 2% increase in revenue at $119.2 billion, with net income growing by 13% to $33.9 billion. The company boasts an impressive installed base of 2.2 billion active devices. Like other major tech firms, Apple’s large and loyal user base gives it an advantage when launching new products or services. The net income growth is impressive given the low revenue growth. The expanding margin was a result of the services revenue increasing at a higher rate than what the cost of sales for the services segment increased by. 

Microsoft 
In the quarter, Microsoft reported robust financials with a revenue of $62.0 billion and a net profit of $21.9 billion, marking impressive year-on-year increases of 18% and 33%, respectively. Notably, the cloud revenue, encompassing Azure, Onedrive, and other cloud services, surged by 24% to $33.7 billion, constituting over 50% of Microsoft’s total earnings for the quarter. Despite this growth, operating expenses for Microsoft increased by 3% year over year. The company’s scalability as a tech giant allows it to boost revenue without a proportional increase in operating costs. 

Meta 
In the recent quarter, Meta achieved a revenue of $40.1 billion, accompanied by a net profit of $14.0 billion, marking a 201% increase in profit compared to the same quarter last year. Across all Meta products, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, there were 3.19 billion daily active users, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth. Noteworthy corporate changes include several restructurings throughout the year, resulting in a 22% reduction in headcount by the end of 2023 compared to the end of 2022. Additionally, Meta declared its first-ever dividend during this period. 
 

Amazon, Apple (via Berkshire Hathaway) and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.   

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
195.25
This Week
195.68
% Change YTD
3.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
75 084
This Week
74 174 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-3.54% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 455
This Week
15 629 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
4.11% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
4 891
This Week
4 959 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.96% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.79
This Week
18.90 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.28% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.38
This Week
20.37 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
0.99% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
83.09
This Week
77.40 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
0.56% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Mega Caps’ Big Week Read More »

ASML: Cycle Up

ASML: Cycle Up

ASML, the Dutch firm behind the production of lithography equipment essential for semiconductor manufacturing, released their 2023 full year financial results last week. In the semiconductor production process, lithography employs light to intricately design patterns on silicon. Semiconductors serve as foundational components (basically the brain) in all electronic devices: ranging from everyday appliances to the smartphones, and the high-powered Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) crucial for training and operating Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT.

Semiconductors vary widely in transistor count, with some containing tens of billions of transistors. The smaller the transistor, the greater the number that can be accommodated on a semiconductor, resulting in enhanced performance and energy efficiency. ASML’s cutting-edge lithography machines can create patterns with transistor sizes as small as 3nm (nano meters, i.e. one thousandth millionth of a meter), and they are currently building the capacity for their 2nm technology. Some argue that the technology they have developed is the most intricate ever devised by humankind.

ASML reported €27.6 billion in revenue for the past year, marking a 30% increase compared to the previous year. The net profit for the company increased 39%, reaching €7.8 billion for FY2023. ASML noted that the current fiscal year will yield results similar to FY2023, emphasizing the ongoing recovery of the semiconductor industry from the trough of its economic cycle. ASML’s primary clientele comprises major fabrication plants in the semiconductor sector, including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Notably, ASML’s clients have given them indications that they want to increase capacity for 2025. This is evidenced by a significant growth in their order book.

ASML holds a virtual global monopoly in the sale of lithography equipment. Due to this dominance and the fact that semiconductors play a vital role in military applications, companies dealing in such equipment require licenses to sell their products. The United States and several allied nations, including the Netherlands, have imposed trade restrictions, restricting the sale of their most equipment to China. ASML anticipates that this will result in a 10-15% decline of their sales to the Chinese market.

ASML is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
191.75
This Week
195.25
% Change YTD
3.67% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
72 661
This Week
75 084 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-2.35% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 311
This Week
15 455 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.96% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
4 840
This Week
4 891 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.54% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
19.01
This Week
18.79 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.68% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.71
This Week
20.38 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.04% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
78.63
This Week
83.09 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.95% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

ASML: Cycle Up Read More »

2023 review

2023 Review

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of 2023
End of 2023
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
141.43
End of 2023​
188.33
% Change YTD
33.16% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
End of 2023​
76 893 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
5.26% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
End of 2023​​
15 011 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
43.42% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
End of 2023​
4 770 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
24.21% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
End of 2023​
11.75% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
End of 2023​
18.30 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.77% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
End of 2023​
20.17 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.38% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
End of 2023​
76.97 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-10.45% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Compliments of the season to everyone. We wish you all the best for the year.

Above is a table showing the change in value of some of the key indicators that we have tracked during the year. We were extremely pleased with the 33% increase the Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund achieved during 2023.

At Lunar Capital, we aim to invest in great businesses that can benefit from long term macro trends. Below are a few examples of long term trends we held last year and I mention some of the holdings we had that resulted in our performance.

1) Technology Innovation

As technology continues to advance, businesses are discovering innovative ways to harness faster and more efficient technologies. This can be done through the development of new products or the enhancement of operational efficiency, leading to cost reduction. Companies like Nvidia and ASML have been relentlessly pursuing new methods to create more efficient semiconductors and the equipment necessary for semiconductor production. These semiconductors provide the foundational building blocks for training Large Language Models, a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI) that will have many opportunities for businesses to provide AI based services.

2) Cybersecurity

The world’s increasing digitization and interconnectivity to the internet have brought a heightened risk of cyber-attacks. Similarly, the increase in geopolitical tensions also increases the risk of cyberattacks. Consequently, there is a growing demand for enhanced cybersecurity measures from individuals, businesses, and governments. Companies like Palo Alto and Crowdstrike are at the forefront of developing new online security tools. Crowdstrike notably uses AI to detect and prevent cyberattacks.

3) Aging Populations and Modern Diseases

In developed nations, the average life expectancy is on the rise, leading to an increased demand for medical care as individuals live longer. This demographic shift also amplifies the need for effective wealth management, particularly among the wealthier older generations. UBS, a Swiss banker and wealth manager has benefited significantly in managing money for its wealthy clients around the world.

Companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have played a pivotal role in addressing health concerns associated with obesity, which is prevalent around the world . A recent trial showed that Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events by 20% in adults who suffer from obesity.

Our view is that these themes can play out over multiple years. At Lunar Capital, we aim to find great businesses that we think will do well with the tailwinds from these mega-trends. Sabir covers this in more depth in his Quarterly Investment Review and Investment Strategy.

Nvidia, ASML, Microsoft, Palo Alto, Crowdstrike, UBS, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

2023 Review Read More »

Lunar Capital Quarterly Investment & Performance Review - 31 December 2023

Lunar Capital Quarterly Investment & Performance Review – 31 December 2023

Sabir provides an update of the Funds’ Performance and Strategy of Lunar Capital as of end December 2023. Full Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2QNH4OR34A

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Lunar Capital Quarterly Investment & Performance Review – 31 December 2023 Read More »

Lululemon: Three x 2

Lululemon: Three x 2

Lululemon’s three growth drivers are product innovation, guest experience and market expansion in athleisure wear. It aims to double (X2) its digital and men’s wear business to achieve a quadruple growth in its non-US sales by 2025. Lululemon is renowned for its athleisure designs catering to various sports codes.

Last week, Lululemon, a business owned by Lunar Capital, unveiled its Q3 2023 results, reported a notable 19% surge in revenue, reaching $2.2 billion for the quarter. Sales in North America saw a 12% increase, while international sales increased by 49%. The latter was mainly attributed to sales in China, which has recently encouraged growth in its economy through favourable policies.

Lululemon’s gross margin for the quarter increased by 110 basis points to achieve 57%. However, there was a 4% decrease in income from operations, settling at $338.1 million. This dip in profit was predominantly a result of an impairment charge incurred on their Mirror product range. Lululemon have decided to discontinue the sale of the hardware associated to the Mirror. Mirror is a subscription service to access thousands of streaming exercises. This service will continue in partnership with Peloton.

Lululemon’s stock price has surged 51% this year, reaching a share price $489.64 per share and boasting a market cap of $61.96 billion as of Friday. Several factors have contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding Lululemon:

  • Diverse Product Pipeline: Lululemon exhibits a clear product roadmap, introducing a variety of new products targeting different sports codes and children’s wear.
  • Robust Online Presence: For the quarter; 41% of Lululemon’s sales were conducted online. Scaling online sales has the potential to yield a higher operating margin compared to traditional in-store sales.
  • Thriving Asian Market: Lululemon has established a robust presence in the international market, particularly in Asia, where a growing demand for their products is evident.
  • Adaptability to Market Trends: The recent emergence of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic may benefit athleisure companies like Lululemon, as these clients need to replace their wardrobes and exercise more. Lululemon, along with other clothing brands, stands to benefit from this trend.

Lululemon is currently enjoying a favourable position and it appears that its Three x 2 strategy is working despite facing intense competition in the market. The challenges come not only from established competitors like Nike, who boast a stronger balance sheet, but also from emerging players entering the field. These newcomers have the potential to introduce novel styles and trends that might resonate more effectively with customers. Despite the competitive landscape, Lululemon’s strengths and strategic advantages position it well in navigating the dynamic and evolving nature of the market.

Lululemon is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

This marks the final stocktake for the year, and we’ll resume our updates in January. Our team will continue monitoring the market and the portfolios we manage; and supporting our clients. 

We extend our heartfelt gratitude for an incredible year and wish all our clients, staff and partners a joyful and safe festive season.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
183.29
This Week
184.35
% Change YTD
30.35% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
75 534
This Week
73 791 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
1.02% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
14 305
This Week
14 404 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
37.61% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 595
This Week
4 605 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
19.91% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.63
This Week
18.97 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.29
This Week
20.42 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.74% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
79.26
This Week
75.81 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-11.80% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Lululemon: Three x 2 Read More »

Snowflake – A Benefactor of Artificial Intelligence

Snowflake – A Benefactor of Artificial Intelligence

Snowflake, owned by Lunar Capital’s clients, assists businesses in organizing and structuring their data, and providing insights on their business. Data is crucial for gaining a clear insight into a company’s value, it’s performance and the factors driving the business. Snowflake efficiently organizes and stores data, enabling companies to easily use and share their information with others; while also providing the management with insights into their business.

Numerous questions have been asked regarding practical applications of Large Language Models (LLMs) in business and how companies can effectively integrate them. Snowflake is deploying LLMs on the structured data that is stored in their cloud infrastructure. The goal is to empower companies using their service to directly query their data without requiring the expertise of data scientists. The key lies in formulating precise questions, making the technology accessible to businesses as long as they have the necessary financial resources to use Snowflake’s services.

Snowflake released their Q3 2024 results last week. Revenue for the quarter increased by 32% year on year to reach $734 million. The gross margin increased from 74.6% in Q3 2023 to 78.3% in Q3 2024. Despite having strong revenue growth, Snowflake’s sales and marketing expense as a percentage of revenue was 48%. Snowflake also recorded an operating loss of $260 million.

Snowflake is classified as a high-growth company. A common characteristic among high-growth companies is that they operate at a loss in early stages to focus on acquiring new clients and enhancing their service offering. Once they reach critical mass, they then have sufficient revenues to be profitable, rewarding shareholders through dividends and share price growth. However, this strategy comes with inherent risks. Potential challenges include the failure to achieve anticipated revenue growth due to factors like lower-than-expected demand for their product. External factors, such as shifts in the macroeconomic environment, can also necessitate cost-cutting measures from their client base, which can impact Snowflake’s revenue growth.

If revenue doesn’t increase as anticipated, the company may be compelled to secure additional funding through debt or equity. This could result in incurring additional interest expenses or diluting existing shareholders through the issue of new shares.

Snowflake is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
182.9
This Week
183.29
% Change YTD
29.60% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
75 712
This Week
75 534 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
3.40% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
14 251
This Week
14 305 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
36.67% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 559
This Week
4 595 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
19.65% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.77
This Week
18.63 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.53
This Week
20.29 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.03% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
80.26
This Week
79.26 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-7.78% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Snowflake – A Benefactor of Artificial Intelligence Read More »

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