Offshore Portfolio Clients

Lululemon: Three x 2

Lululemon: Three x 2

Lululemon’s three growth drivers are product innovation, guest experience and market expansion in athleisure wear. It aims to double (X2) its digital and men’s wear business to achieve a quadruple growth in its non-US sales by 2025. Lululemon is renowned for its athleisure designs catering to various sports codes.

Last week, Lululemon, a business owned by Lunar Capital, unveiled its Q3 2023 results, reported a notable 19% surge in revenue, reaching $2.2 billion for the quarter. Sales in North America saw a 12% increase, while international sales increased by 49%. The latter was mainly attributed to sales in China, which has recently encouraged growth in its economy through favourable policies.

Lululemon’s gross margin for the quarter increased by 110 basis points to achieve 57%. However, there was a 4% decrease in income from operations, settling at $338.1 million. This dip in profit was predominantly a result of an impairment charge incurred on their Mirror product range. Lululemon have decided to discontinue the sale of the hardware associated to the Mirror. Mirror is a subscription service to access thousands of streaming exercises. This service will continue in partnership with Peloton.

Lululemon’s stock price has surged 51% this year, reaching a share price $489.64 per share and boasting a market cap of $61.96 billion as of Friday. Several factors have contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding Lululemon:

  • Diverse Product Pipeline: Lululemon exhibits a clear product roadmap, introducing a variety of new products targeting different sports codes and children’s wear.
  • Robust Online Presence: For the quarter; 41% of Lululemon’s sales were conducted online. Scaling online sales has the potential to yield a higher operating margin compared to traditional in-store sales.
  • Thriving Asian Market: Lululemon has established a robust presence in the international market, particularly in Asia, where a growing demand for their products is evident.
  • Adaptability to Market Trends: The recent emergence of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic may benefit athleisure companies like Lululemon, as these clients need to replace their wardrobes and exercise more. Lululemon, along with other clothing brands, stands to benefit from this trend.

Lululemon is currently enjoying a favourable position and it appears that its Three x 2 strategy is working despite facing intense competition in the market. The challenges come not only from established competitors like Nike, who boast a stronger balance sheet, but also from emerging players entering the field. These newcomers have the potential to introduce novel styles and trends that might resonate more effectively with customers. Despite the competitive landscape, Lululemon’s strengths and strategic advantages position it well in navigating the dynamic and evolving nature of the market.

Lululemon is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

This marks the final stocktake for the year, and we’ll resume our updates in January. Our team will continue monitoring the market and the portfolios we manage; and supporting our clients. 

We extend our heartfelt gratitude for an incredible year and wish all our clients, staff and partners a joyful and safe festive season.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
183.29
This Week
184.35
% Change YTD
30.35% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
75 534
This Week
73 791 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
1.02% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
14 305
This Week
14 404 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
37.61% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 595
This Week
4 605 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
19.91% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.63
This Week
18.97 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.29
This Week
20.42 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.74% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
79.26
This Week
75.81 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-11.80% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Lululemon: Three x 2 Read More »

Roche – Recovering Post Covid

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
175.19
This Week
170.40
% Change YTD
20.48% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
70 198
This Week
69 452Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-4.92% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
12 984
This Week
12 643 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
20.80% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 224
This Week
4 117 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
7.21% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
19.03
This Week
18.84 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
10.95% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.15
This Week
19.91 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
7.97% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
92.16
This Week
90.01 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
4.72%Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Roche is a Swiss-based biotechnology company, specialising in diagnostics and pharmaceuticals.

In diagnostics, Roche has solutions for diagnosis kits for cardiometabolic, diabetes, cancer, and other diseases. Diagnosing diseases early or before they occur in susceptible people, can improve treatments choices, treatment outcomes, reduce suffering, and increase lifespans in patients.

In pharmaceuticals, Roche has treatments for haematology (blood diseases), oncology (cancer), ophthalmology (eye diseases), respiratory, and women’s diseases, amongst others.  

In summary, for the comparative 9 months to end September; Roche revenues were down 6% to ƒ44.1bn (Swiss francs), with Pharmaceuticals up by 1% and Diagnostics down by 25%; in 2023 versus 2022. The main reasons for the decline and low growth in revenues is due to almost zero demand for Covid-19 related diagnostic kits and treatments.

Encouragingly, the uptake of new medicines and diagnostics showed strong growth in both the divisions. Roche also have launches of several products in the fourth quarter and into next year.

  • Vabysmo, a treatment for specific conditions leading to a loss or deterioration of vision was launched in 2022 and is expected to become a blockbuster drug, with sales exceeding ƒ2bn in 2023.
  • Polivy, launched in 2019, and used in the treatment of lymphoma (cancer) has also shown significant in sales growth in 2023.
  • Roche’s Elecsys IL-6 is used in diagnosing sepsis in neonates (new borns) allowing early treatment that can prevent deaths in approximately 84% of cases.

Roche has invested in technology and use AI/ML (Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning) tools in several areas of their business, including in research and development, clinical development, manufacturing, and commercialisation.  

Biotechnology businesses are subject to strict regulations and are required to get approvals from every country’s regulatory authority to be able to sell their products in those countries. Work in research and development for specific mdeicines can take many years and there is no guarantee of success.

Roche is held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients and in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund.

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Roche – Recovering Post Covid Read More »

ASML – Riding the Cycle

Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (now renamed simply ASML), is based in cycling country, The Netherlands and released their FY2023 Q3 results on Wednesday last week.

ASML manufactures the lithography equipment to mass produce semiconductor or more commonly called computer chips. Lithography allows one to “print” complex circuits onto silicone wafers creating a semiconductor chip. The process and materials used is highly complex and requires a very high level of precision.

In this last quarter, AMSL experienced a slowdown in new orders, after the significant growth post the Covid-19 slump and the significant take-up following the AI hype. However, ASML expects a significant increase their revenues in 2025.

Let’s look at ASML’s FY2023 Q3 results:

Sales
€6,673bn
Decreased by 3.33% since the last quarter.
No. of Units sold
105 new units
7 used units
Lower by 2 new and 1 used unit since the last quarter.
Gross Profit
€3,462bn
Decreased by 2.31% since the last quarter.
Gross Margin
51.9%
Up from 51.3% since the last quarter.
Net Income
€1,893bn
Decreased by 2.52% since the last quarter.
Net Margin
28.4%
Up from 28.14% since the last quarter.

Despite the slowdown in sales and profits, ASML is still highly profitable and still earns high margins. ASML is almost a monopoly in developing Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) technology required to develop smaller (very, very tiny) but more powerful semiconductors or chips.

ASML’s largest client is TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) who is currently building new factories (or fabs as they are called) in the USA and Germany. This is to mitigate the tensions between the USA and China. In fact, just last week the Biden administration introduced stricter curbs on exporting advanced semiconductor to China. These new fabs will require AMML’s EUV and DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography equipment to mass produce chips at these fabs. Hence, ASML’s positive view of significant increase in sales and profits in 2025.

The semiconductor industry is cyclical and subject to export restrictions.

ASML is held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients and in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
176.11
This Week
175.19
% Change YTD
23.87% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
72 920
This Week
70 198 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-3.90% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
13 407
This Week
12 984 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
24.05% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 328
This Week
4224 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
10.0% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
19.01
This Week
19.03 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
12.07% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
19.98
This Week
20.15 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.27% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
91.12
This Week
92.16 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.23%Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

ASML – Riding the Cycle Read More »

Birken’s Stock

Birken’s Stock

Last week, Birkenstock Holding, along with the majority-shareholder private-equity firm L Catterton, raised approximately $1.5 billion through an initial public offering (IPO) for the German shoe brand, Birkenstock. About one-third of the proceeds were allocated towards alleviating some of Birkenstock’s existing debt, while the remaining portion was distributed to L Catterton. Birkenstock was valued at $9.3 billion, with an IPO price of $46 per share.

Birkenstock, founded in 1774 and known for their iconic cork-based sandals, had a majority stake acquired by L Catterton in 2021. It valued the company at $4.8 billion at the time. L Catterton, backed by LVMH (the luxury brand conglomerate,) said they bought the stake with the intention of increasing Birkenstock’s presence in India and China; and also increasing its direct-to-consumer segment. Between 2020 and 2022 fiscal year-end, sales for Birkenstock increased from $771 million to $1.24 billion, with direct-to-consumer sales making up 38% of the sales in 2022.

In addition to prioritizing direct-to-consumer sales, the company has developed strategic collaborations with luxury fashion labels like Dior and Manolo Blahnik. These co-branded shoes, despite selling far less in terms of volume, command much higher prices (and higher gross margins). Some of these co-branded sandals can go for us much as €1600; while Birkenstock’s standard models, like the Barbados, are priced at approximately €45.

One of the reasons Birkenstock sandals are popular is because they are designed to distribute your body weight throughout your entire foot, rather than on specific pressure points like your heels or balls of your feet. They are also adjustable for different foot widths and the cork footbed gets moulded to the shape of your foot. Originally developed as orthopaedic shoes, Birkenstocks now have a cult like following, and were featured in the recent Barbie movie which has led to further interest in the brand.

Birkenstock’s shares fell by over 20% last week from its IPO price. IPO’s are used to raise capital for growth initiatives, debt settlement, or to provide liquidity to the shareholder base. Private-equity firms often use IPO’s to realise value from an investment that they made in a company. This often leads to large tranches of shares being available in the market post the IPO: resulting in a drop in the share price. This is one of the reasons that we, at Lunar Capital, generally avoid buying shares in a company when it IPO’s.

LVMH is held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
176.38
This Week
177.11
% Change YTD
25.23% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
71 657
This Week
72 920 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-0.18% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
13 431
This Week
13 407 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
28.09% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 309
This Week
4 328 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
12.70% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
19.34
This Week
19.01 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
11.96% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.49
This Week
19.98 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
8.35% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
84.56
This Week
91.12 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.02% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Birken’s Stock Read More »

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