Offshore Portfolio

Amazon – Not your everyday Bookseller

Amazon – Not your everyday Bookseller

Amazon, once an online bookseller, has gradually transformed into the expansive “everything store.” Utilizing its efficient fulfillment infrastructure, Amazon swiftly delivers both its own products and third-party products worldwide. While its e-commerce segment drives the bulk of revenue, the true profit engine lies in its cloud division: AWS. In the latest quarter, Amazon’s North American e-commerce unit generated $86 billion in revenue with a 5.7% operating margin, while AWS generated $25 billion in revenue with a notable 37.6% operating margin. Amazon’s free cash flow was $50.1bn for the last twelve months, demonstrating its significant financial strength.

Amazon is renowned for identifying pain points within their own operations and devising solutions to overcome them, and then selling that solution as a service to third parties. In this way, they turn cost centres into profit centres. When they managed their internet servers, they noticed significant periods of dormancy in their IT infrastructure, punctuated by occasional spikes in usage. Recognizing this, Amazon seized the opportunity to create AWS. Instead of companies needing to set up and manage their IT infrastructure, Amazon does it for a fee, based on usage. Today, global enterprises rely on AWS to power their entire operations. Now, AWS is increasingly being employed by companies to train their generative AI models. Amazon observed that many companies are still in the training phase of their generative AI products, and that the products aren’t available for the market just yet.

Amazon has followed the same principle with regards to their fulfillment service. Companies are able to sell their products internationally on Amazon’s platform, while not needing to go through the process of figuring out the complicated rates and tariffs they are required to pay in each country.

Amazon’s reach extends far beyond e-commerce and cloud computing. They also run a video-streaming platform, own a significant share of an electric car company (Rivian), and operate an advertising business integrated with their e-commerce operations, which generated $11.8 billion in revenue this recent quarter. Advertising, known for its high operating margins, is likely to contribute to Amazon’s growing profitability.

Yet, amidst their diverse ventures, Amazon faces formidable competition. Beyond rival e-commerce and traditional retail businesses, they contend with tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft. Big Tech is also facing increased regulatory pressure around the world.

Amazon’s origins in a low-margin environment have instilled a cost-effective mindset into their DNA. They have shown, time and again, how to develop new products and services while keeping costs low.

Amazon and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
198.44
This Week
196.55
% Change YTD
4.36% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
75 371
This Week
76 428 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-0.60% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 928
This Week
16 156 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.63% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 100
This Week
5 128 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.50% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.81
This Week
18.50 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
1.09% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.12
This Week
19.93 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-1.19% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
89.29
This Week
82.81 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
7.59% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Amazon – Not your everyday Bookseller Read More »

Microsoft: On Cloud Nine

Microsoft: On Cloud Nine

Microsoft unveiled their Q3 2024 results last week. Revenue for the quarter reached $61.9 billion, marking a 17% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, net income for the same period amounted to $21.9 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year rise. The primary growth driver for Microsoft’s revenue was their cloud services segment, encompassing products and services such as OneDrive and Azure. Cloud services revenue for the quarter totalled $35.1 billion, increasing by 23% year-over-year. As of Friday, 26 April, Microsoft held the title of the world’s most valued stock, boasting a valuation of just over $3 trillion.

Microsoft has been among the beneficiaries of the Large Language Model hype that surged last year and this year. Microsoft has invested approximately $13 billion in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. Microsoft does not have any ownership stake in OpenAI. But, they are entitled to a share of profit distributions. Microsoft’s cloud service, Azure, enables businesses to deploy their AI applications using their servers. However, Microsoft has stated that the demand for their AI services currently surpasses their current capacity. Consequently, they are ramping up their capital expenditure. In the latest quarter, they spent $14 billion on capital expenditure, exceeding the anticipated $11 billion.

Microsoft encounters formidable competition from other well-resourced rivals such as Amazon and Alphabet in the cloud computing/AI arena. As companies expand, scaling their market share becomes progressively challenging compared to their initial growth trajectory. Frequently, firms seeking to increase their market presence through acquisitions find themselves paying a premium to entice shareholders. Recently, Microsoft concluded its acquisition of the gaming giant Activision for just under $70 billion. Only time will reveal whether Microsoft has potentially overpaid for the company, or whether they were able to use their platform to create a more compelling gaming experience for users.

Microsoft not only provides cloud and gaming services, it’s Office suite of business tools is widely used in businesses and homes worldwide, it also provides on-line security, data management, virtual meeting services (Teams) and search services, amongst others.

Microsoft and Amazon held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
199.38
This Week
198.44
% Change YTD
5.37% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
73 364
This Week
75 371 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-1.98% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 282
This Week
15 928 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.11% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
4 967
This Week
5 100 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.92% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
19.14
This Week
18.81 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
2.79% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.41
This Week
20.12 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-0.25% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
87.14
This Week
89.29 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
16.01% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Microsoft: On Cloud Nine Read More »

Gearing Up – A Semiconductor Story

Gearing Up – A Semiconductor Story

Semiconductors or chips regulate electrical flow in electronic devices. They are vital for various products like computers, artificial intelligence (AI) systems, smartphones, automotive vehicles, and military equipment. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) manufactures roughly 90% of the world’s cutting-edge chips, while ASML crafts lithography machinery essential for making these chips smaller and more energy-efficient.

Last week, TSMC and ASML released their Q1 2024 results. TSMC saw a 16.5% increase in revenue to NT$592 billion (with an average USD/NTD exchange rate of 31.4) compared to the same quarter last year. While ASML reported €5.29 billion in revenue for the quarter, marking a 21.5% decline from the same period last year. Due to the recent interest around AI, high performance computing chips accounted for 46% of TSMC’s revenue for the quarter.

ASML believes that the semiconductor industry is going to go through a transitory year this year. Orders for its machinery for Q1 2024 dipped nearly 4% compared to the same quarter last year and decreased by 60% compared to the previous quarter. Some of ASML’s latest extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines go for around €350 million each. Consequently, manufacturers must be certain about their timing for acquiring lithography equipment. ASML anticipates its revenue for the year to remain consistent with 2023 levels. Subsequently, it’s positioning itself to escalate production for 2025.

The US Chips Act aims to encourage semiconductor manufacturers to establish plants within the United States. TSMC and Samsung have each secured approximately $6.5 billion in grants and subsidies to construct facilities in the US. ASML stands to benefit significantly from the Chips Act, given its near monopoly on the sale of EUV lithography machinery worldwide. However, due to the scale of these projects, there is an elevated risk of delays. Consequently, ASML faces the challenge of potentially building up inventory without the ability to deliver products, whilst these new facilities are being constructed. This could impact their near-term financial performance. However, when these new facilities are ready, they would need to be furbished with ASML’s lithography machines, which will likely be very positive for ASML.

The demand for more and more computing power to process the growing demand for AI, smartphones, EV’s and larger and more complex cloud service providers; is adding strain to energy grids. This is driving both the design and manufacture of more energy efficient semiconductors, as well as alternative energy solutions.

ASML is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
203.47
This Week
199.38
% Change YTD
5.87% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
75 312
This Week
73 364 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-4.59% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 175
This Week
15 282 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
1.80% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 123
This Week
4 967 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
4.14%Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.84
This Week
19.14 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
4.59% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.09
This Week
20.41 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.19% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
90.18
This Week
87.14 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
13.21% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Gearing Up – A Semiconductor Story Read More »

JP Morgan and the Fortress Balance Sheet

JP Morgan and the Fortress Balance Sheet

Last week, JP Morgan released its Q1 2024 results. The quarterly net revenue increased to $41.9 billion, marking a 9% increase from the preceding quarter. Net income also saw a significant increase, reaching $13.4 billion, up 44% from the previous quarter. Provisions for credit losses witnessed a decline of 32%, settling at $1.9 billion. JP Morgan upheld a steady return on equity of 17%.

Despite the increase in revenue, Net Interest Income (NII) declined 4% due to deposit margin compression and the overall amount of deposits decreasing. This was mainly seen in the Consumer and Community Banking (CCB) section of JP Morgan. However, due to the rise in the US equities market last year, CCB investment assets were up 25%.

JP Morgan expressed that despite the strong economic indicators, such as the strong unemployment rate and wages in the US, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market such as the ongoing geopolitical tensions and a large number of persistent inflationary pressures. JP Morgan also highlighted that the bank has not experienced this level of quantitative tightening at this scale before. The effects are likely only going to be seen over the long term. These comments likely caused the stock price to slide by just over 6% following the results disclosure.

JP Morgan benefitted from the recent regional banking crisis in the US when they purchased First Republic. This contributed to their growth in assets, revenues, and profits. JP Morgan prides itself on its “fortress balance sheet”; which in turn allows it to take advantage of large deals when they become available.

JP Morgan is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
200.74
This Week
203.47
% Change YTD
8.04% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
74 775
This Week
75 312 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-2.06% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 250
This Week
16 175 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
7.75% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 204
This Week
5 123 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
7.41% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.70
This Week
18.84 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.95% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.27
This Week
20.09 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-0.40% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
90.87
This Week
90.18 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
17.16% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

JP Morgan and the Fortress Balance Sheet Read More »

Balancing the Scale

Balancing the Scale

When companies grow to become large/mega cap businesses, they face both challenges and opportunities when they try to grow further. The specific circumstances for each company’s position significantly influences the potential or the impediments for continued expansion. Below are a few examples of some of the challenges and opportunities these companies may face.

The Challenges

Acquisitions
In acquisitions, large companies face a limited pool of targets due to fewer medium and large-sized companies compared to the number of small companies. Factors like compatibility and pricing reduce this pool further. With greater financial resources, acquiring companies often pay a premium for these companies to entice them to join. This trend is evident across numerous instances. For instance, in 2014, Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $19 billion. A decade later, WhatsApp boasts over 2 billion users but generates minimal revenue, estimated at around $1.2 billion for the previous year. Warren Buffett also regularly advises the lack of potential acquisition targets that Berkshire Hathaway can make to make a meaningful difference in their portfolio.

Product line and different markets
As companies achieve significant market share in different markets, introducing new products or expanding into new markets may not provide the same revenue and profit increases they previously enjoyed. Nike is currently experiencing this. Despite Nike rolling out numerous new products Nike’s revenue has had a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% for the last 2 fiscal years.

Corporate Constraints
As companies grow, their delivery platforms and teams need to be expanded to support their enlarged customer base and higher volumes. This may have been achieved with previous generation technologies and smaller more agile and flexible teams. With a larger client base and higher volumes and a complex platform, they may not be as agile as they previously were, increasing the time and costs of rolling out new products, services, and features; and allowing smaller, more nimble competitors to steal a march on them. Google is experiencing this with the roll-out of their AI tools, for example.

The Opportunities

Platforms
Businesses built as platforms, i.e. where multiple services are provided to clients, and new products or services can be added very quickly, however have an advantage despite their large/mega size. As platform businesses Microsoft, for example can expand by adding new features and services to their platform and further entrench existing and new customers into their ecosystem. Microsoft’s 365 product suite facilitates bundling various products, making it challenging for customers to switch once integrated. Moreover, they swiftly deploy new products to a vast customer base. For instance, between 2017 and 2023, the number of Microsoft Teams users surged from 2 million to 320 million, solidifying its leadership in virtual meetings arena.

There are many opportunities for companies to grow, but as they keep on growing there are certain challenges that they face. Some companies have a better ability to deal with these challenges than others.

Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
205.72
This Week
200.74
% Change YTD
6.59% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
74 536
This Week
74 775 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-2.75% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 379
This Week
16 250 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
8.25% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 254
This Week
5 204 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
9.11% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.85
This Week
18.70 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
2.19% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.35
This Week
20.27 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
0.50% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
86.97
This Week
90.87 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
18.06% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Balancing the Scale Read More »

Making Lululemon-ade

Making Lululemon-ade

Last week, Lululemon, the Vancouver based athleisure company, released their Q4 2023 results. The yearly revenue increased by 18.5% to $9.6 billion, accompanied by an 81% increase in Lululemon’s net income to $1.5 billion. This surge in net income can be attributed mainly to a notable decrease in the 2023 impairment charge. In the preceding year, Lululemon faced an impairment charge of $407 million, whereas this year’s charge stands at $74 million. 2022’s impairment charge primarily comprises of the impairment of its investment in the home-workout product-range: “Mirror.”

The Americas segment, making up 79% of total sales, experienced a modest revenue increase of nearly 12%. In contrast, the international segment, representing the remaining 21% of sales, witnessed a robust 54% revenue surge. During the earnings call, management articulated their aspiration for the international segment to contribute 50% of sales in the future. They acknowledged a deceleration in the demand growth rate for their products in the Americas’ market. Consequently, they adjusted their annual sales growth projection to around the mid-teens. This adjustment led to a 15% decline in Lululemon’s share price on the day.

Lululemon is investing for growth, primarily targeting the expansion of its brand visibility and bolstering its presence in international markets, particularly in China, where demand for its products has been substantial. To enhance brand recognition, the company is focusing on sponsoring athletes and teams. Notably, they are backing the Canadian national team for the 2024 Summer Olympics. Lululemon intends to address underrepresented markets by opening around 10 stores in the US and 30 stores in other parts of the world.

Lululemon contends with lots of competition in the athleisure sector, including major players like Nike, as well as various niche athleisure brands. Lululemon is a luxury brand within this competitive landscape. Amidst heightened global economic uncertainty, consumers tend to slow down their spending on luxury goods.

Lululemon is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
204.52
This Week
207.32
% Change YTD
10.08% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
72 991
This Week
73 254 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-4.73% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 973
This Week
16 429 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.44% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 117
This Week
5 234 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.74% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
20.44
This Week
19.00 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.83% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
85.27
This Week
20.62 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.23% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
81.82
This Week
85.58 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.19% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Making Lululemon-ade Read More »

Snowflake – A Benefactor of Artificial Intelligence

Snowflake – A Benefactor of Artificial Intelligence

Snowflake, owned by Lunar Capital’s clients, assists businesses in organizing and structuring their data, and providing insights on their business. Data is crucial for gaining a clear insight into a company’s value, it’s performance and the factors driving the business. Snowflake efficiently organizes and stores data, enabling companies to easily use and share their information with others; while also providing the management with insights into their business.

Numerous questions have been asked regarding practical applications of Large Language Models (LLMs) in business and how companies can effectively integrate them. Snowflake is deploying LLMs on the structured data that is stored in their cloud infrastructure. The goal is to empower companies using their service to directly query their data without requiring the expertise of data scientists. The key lies in formulating precise questions, making the technology accessible to businesses as long as they have the necessary financial resources to use Snowflake’s services.

Snowflake released their Q3 2024 results last week. Revenue for the quarter increased by 32% year on year to reach $734 million. The gross margin increased from 74.6% in Q3 2023 to 78.3% in Q3 2024. Despite having strong revenue growth, Snowflake’s sales and marketing expense as a percentage of revenue was 48%. Snowflake also recorded an operating loss of $260 million.

Snowflake is classified as a high-growth company. A common characteristic among high-growth companies is that they operate at a loss in early stages to focus on acquiring new clients and enhancing their service offering. Once they reach critical mass, they then have sufficient revenues to be profitable, rewarding shareholders through dividends and share price growth. However, this strategy comes with inherent risks. Potential challenges include the failure to achieve anticipated revenue growth due to factors like lower-than-expected demand for their product. External factors, such as shifts in the macroeconomic environment, can also necessitate cost-cutting measures from their client base, which can impact Snowflake’s revenue growth.

If revenue doesn’t increase as anticipated, the company may be compelled to secure additional funding through debt or equity. This could result in incurring additional interest expenses or diluting existing shareholders through the issue of new shares.

Snowflake is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
182.9
This Week
183.29
% Change YTD
29.60% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
75 712
This Week
75 534 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
3.40% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
14 251
This Week
14 305 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
36.67% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 559
This Week
4 595 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
19.65% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.77
This Week
18.63 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.53
This Week
20.29 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.03% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
80.26
This Week
79.26 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-7.78% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Snowflake – A Benefactor of Artificial Intelligence Read More »

Nvidia – Bringing on the Competition

Nvidia – Bringing on the Competition

Nvidia, the AI chip designer, has had a surge in its share price since the beginning of the year. The company’s share price has increased just over 230% since the beginning of the year. It has been the poster company for investors trying to jump in on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) wave, that has dominated news cycles and conversations over the past year.

Nvidia is renowned for developing the first commercially accessible graphics processing unit (GPU) in 1999. The GPU distinguishes itself from the central processing unit (CPU) by completing less intricate tasks but can do these tasks concurrently. The CPU, on the other hand, can handle more complex tasks but does them sequentially. GPUs have a wide variety of uses such as:

  • Creating visuals for displays on computers
  • Facilitating the computations essential for cryptocurrency mining
  • Contributing to the training of large language models in data centres

Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, owners of the world’s three largest cloud services providers, have been acquiring Nvidia’s premium GPUs for advancing the next phases of AI application development. These high-end chips come at a substantial cost, with Nvidia’s flagship H100 chip priced at approximately $30,000 each. In Q3 2024, Nvidia gross margin reached 74%: a significant increase from the 56% recorded during Q3 2023. The quarter’s revenues soared to $18 billion, marking a remarkable growth of over 200% compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, Nvidia’s net income reached $9 billion for the quarter, indicating a 1200% increase compared to the same quarter last year.

The substantial costs associated with Nvidia’s high-end GPUs have prompted Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet to seek alternatives. Consequently, these tech giants have either already crafted their own chips or are in the process of developing such solutions for use in their data centres. Backed by substantial capital reserves, these companies are investing in chip development endeavours aimed at narrowing the performance gap with Nvidia’s offerings. Nvidia is not stepping back though. The company claims that its upcoming flagship H200, slated for release next year, boasts nearly double the capacity of its predecessor, the H100 GPU.

The competition is further intensifying as traditional semiconductor companies globally vie to capitalize on the AI trend. The race is notably heightened by the US ban on exporting high-performing chips to China, serving as a catalyst for Chinese companies to bolster their presence in the AI chip market. The race is on. As it stands, Nvidia is in the lead but there are many other factors that could favour other winners.

Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
176.17
This Week
182.99
% Change YTD
29.39% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
73 921
This Week
75 712 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.65% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
14 125
This Week
14 251 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
36.15% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 514
This Week
4 559 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
18.73% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.34
This Week
18.77 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.54% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.00
This Week
20.53 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.33% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
80.50
This Week
80.26 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-6.62% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Nvidia – Bringing on the Competition Read More »

Walmart – History of Opportunity

Walmart – History of Opportunity

The first Walmart store opened its doors in 1962 in Arkansas, USA. Sam Walton, the founder, perceived a potential niche for discount retail stores catering to customers in rural areas in the US. Traditionally, these customers had been neglected by conventional department stores concentrating their efforts in larger cities. Today, Walmart strives to cater to customers across both rural and urban landscapes. In the United States, 90% of the population lives within a 16 km radius of a Walmart store.

Walmart’s business model revolves around the fundamental principle of delivering products and services to customers at the most competitive prices. To achieve the goal of offering the “Lowest price possible,” Walmart employs various strategic tactics, including:

  • Economies of scale: Walmart acquires products in substantial quantities, securing a lower per-unit cost from suppliers.
  • Everyday low prices: Rather than relying on periodic promotions, Walmart is committed to maintaining consistently low prices across a diverse range of products.
  • Centralized distribution centres: Each distribution centre supports 90 to 100 stores within a 240 km radius.

These initiatives have propelled Walmart to emerge as one of the primary price leaders in the retail sector. Walmart establishes the pricing standards that competitors are forced to match.

Last week, Walmart released their Q3 2023 results. Revenue increased by 5.2% compared to the same quarter last year, reaching $160.8 billion. Meanwhile, the “cost of sales” experienced a more modest increase of 4.8%, resulting in a gross margin of 24.6%. The “Operating, selling, general, and administrative” expenses decreased by 3.1%, settling at $33.4 billion. This reduction led to a 130% increase in operating income, soaring to $6.2 billion for the quarter.

In low margin businesses, the operational leverage becomes evident through variances between the change in revenue and the change in costs. When companies enact cost-cutting measures or experience revenue growth outpacing cost growth, operating income grows at a higher rate than revenue. Conversely, if costs were to outpace revenue growth, the operating income of the company would be leveraged in the opposite direction.

Walmart executives indicated that the US consumer was starting to show some levels of stress due to high interest rates. This, despite their very good results impacted the share price, which dropped by about 8% since the announcement of their results.

Walmart is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. It is also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
176.17
This Week
176.17
% Change YTD
24.56% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
71 39
This Week
73 921 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.19% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
13 798
This Week
14 125 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
34.95% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 415
This Week
4 514 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
17.55 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.74
This Week
18.34 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
8.01% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.02
This Week
20.00 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
8.46% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
81.62
This Week
80.50 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-6.34% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Walmart – History of Opportunity Read More »

Adyen – All in One

Following the release of the 2nd quarter 2023 results, Adyen, the financial technology company, witnessed a more than 50% decline in its share price, plummeting to a low of €633 in October. This downturn was attributed to a deceleration in their revenue growth and increased personnel hiring spree. However, in their 3rd quarter results presentation, unveiled last week, Adyen’s share price surged by 36% , reaching €936. Adyen’s shares have exhibited considerable volatility, reflective of the challenges the company faces in navigating its expansion into new markets; coupled with the overall market sentiment.

Adyen provides businesses with a comprehensive platform for end-to-end management of payments, data, and financial transactions. Their platform enables businesses to seamlessly process both online and in-store payments within a unified system. This integrated approach offers businesses a holistic perspective on their operations. Adyen also holds a banking license, which allows them to hold their client’s funds and issue cards to those clients. This feature facilitates the smooth transfer of funds between different aspects of a business, enhancing overall operational efficiency. The data collected from the business’ users; and the business’ cash flow are all managed on a singular platform.

For Q3, Adyen reported processed transaction volume of €243 billion and a net revenue of €413 million, marking respective year-over-year increases of 21% and 22%. Throughout the year, Adyen has been actively expanding its sales team, employing the “land and expand” sales strategy. This approach involves encouraging potential clients to adopt one of their products initially and subsequently demonstrating the advantages of using additional offerings over time. Adyen, also held an investor day last week, where they provided clarity on their business strategy, which included moderating the pace of personnel hiring in 2024, clarifying how their investments will increase revenues and improve margins, their direct focus on large institutional clients and supporting smaller clients through integrating with fintech platforms. This contributed to Adyen’s 36% share price jump.

The payments space is highly competitive, but it appears that Adyen has a strategy to be competitive by their value-added offering.

Adyen is held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
172.81
This Week
176.17
% Change YTD
24.56% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
72 856
This Week
71 393 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-2.27% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
13 478
This Week
13 798 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
31.82% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 358
This Week
4 415 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
14.98% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.25
This Week
18.74 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.37%Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
19.60
This Week
20.02 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
8.57% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
85.17
This Week
81.62 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-5.04% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Adyen – All in One Read More »

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