VCS Agency

Seminal changes

When the British voted marginally in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit as it was popularly known as); many, including me and even Brexit supporters were surprised. Even more surprising was Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the US presidential elections. We were all led to believe by the mainstream media, as well as most pollsters, that Hillary Clinton would win the election. In the recent local government elections in South Africa, we witnessed similar changes in voting behavior. Most of the major metropolitans are now run by parties in opposition to the ANC.

If you include in the mix the #FeesMustFall movement, the public service delivery demonstrations and other similar protests; it is becoming evident that there is a growing level of discontent with the current status quo in South Africa as well as in many other countries.

As citizens as well as investors, we try to understand what is happening and how this may affect us.

 

What is happening?

I would like to posit a theory that suggests that these changes in voting and the protests that are taking place reflect a deepening dissatisfaction by the majority of citizens on the current status quo:

• Unemployment – unemployment levels are high, traditional long-term employment is being replaced by short-term contract type assignments. In South Africa, unemployment levels stand officially at 26.6% but does not take into account many who are in the informal sector who barely make ends meet.

• Increasing levels of Inequality – a study by Anna Orthofer from Stellenbosch University, finds that 95% of the wealth in the country is owned by only 10% of the population. Interestingly, Orthofer also finds that there is a growing Black middle class which makes up approximately 40% of the population and that there is less disparity in incomes between top earners and the middle class. This Black middle class however, has very little assets (only 5% to 10% of the total wealth).

• Poor policy choices – policy choices made those in power have not had the expected impact on unemployment and / or inequality. One can argue that these policies have exacerbated these issues. Low interest rates by central bankers have increased asset prices (stocks, bonds, property, etc.) widening the inequality gap. Where businesses have invested, these have been typically in capital intensive, labour saving machinery instead.

• Disconnected elite – Elites (i.e. those in government, business and professionals) are disconnected and thus unable to understand and / or respond appropriately to the growing angst and dissatisfaction of the majority of the population.

The result is Brexit, Trump, Vuyani, #FeesMustFall, #RhodesMustFall, etc. Citizens are rejecting the status quo and are looking for alternatives. You may not agree with any or all of these movements, but they are capturing voters by understanding their fears and voicing these. Some of the words and actions may be racist or violent in nature, but this does not deter people from supporting them.

My view is that the underlying causes of the issues are not well understood and hence we find ourselves in this situation.

 

Some of the Underlying reasons for the issues

Several underlying issues are playing out causing the current dissatisfaction. I highlight two of these:

• Technological Change – Technology innovations are increasingly decimating jobs. Most modern factories are highly automated. Similarly clerical or white collar jobs are also rapidly been replaced by automation. Recent developments in artificial intelligence are also beginning to impact on knowledge based professions (automated trading; robot advisors, medical diagnosis, legal research, language translation, etc.). Imagine the impact that driverless vehicles will have by thinking about how many earn their living by driving.

• Globalisation – Globalisation also plays a significant role in the destruction of jobs. Offshoring, cheap manufacturing countries, low tax jurisdictions, all vie for more capital and / or jobs to move to their countries. The movement of people from countries with potentially lower economic prospects to countries with higher economic prospects (e.g. Mexico to USA; Zimbabwe to South Africa; Eastern Europeans to United Kingdom) also plays a role in employment changes.

But the world has gone through technological as well as globalisation changes before and by-and-large mankind has benefited from this. What is wrong this time?

 

Benefits not equally shared

Take a look at the graph below:

 

Source: Lawrence Mishel, The Wedges Between Productivity and Median Compensation Growth, Economic Policy Institute. http://www.epi.org/publication/ib330-productivity-vs-compensation/

What this graph shows is that the economic benefits of productivity gains has by-and-large only gone to others (shareholders, maybe tax authorities) and not to the workforce. This is perhaps the most telling picture of why we have the level to inequality that we have right now.

Jobs have been displaced from blue and white collar workers to technologists and from high cost countries to low cost countries. New jobs created have been insufficient in addressing the tide of unemployment or real wage growth. Further, the benefits of productivity improvements from 1975 onwards has not gone towards compensation (salaries and wages). Hence this growing inequality and unrest on the status quo.

 

South African specifics

In South Africa, with the challenges that we face in our education sector, we are not creating near enough new economy jobs or onshoring jobs to take advantage of these trends. Many of our school leavers and even university graduates are ill-equipped to cope with the demands of the new economy. We score poorly in Mathematics and Science when we benchmark our students against global peers. Many of our brightest minds are been lured to work overseas taking with them their skills and the opportunity to create jobs in South Africa.

Because our economy is not growing, those that are in employment, protect their jobs at every cost. Whether it is through subtle racism in the corporate world or by killing rival political candidates in government elections. All these actions reflect a fear of losing one’s income. [fusion_builder_container hundred_percent=\”yes\” overflow=\”visible\”][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=\”1_1\” background_position=\”left top\” background_color=\”\” border_size=\”\” border_color=\”\” border_style=\”solid\” spacing=\”yes\” background_image=\”\” background_repeat=\”no-repeat\” padding=\”\” margin_top=\”0px\” margin_bottom=\”0px\” class=\”\” id=\”\” animation_type=\”\” animation_speed=\”0.3\” animation_direction=\”left\” hide_on_mobile=\”no\” center_content=\”no\” min_height=\”none\”][To be clear, I’m neither an apologist for racists nor murderers.]

Arguably, even the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies create an unintended consequence of white people desperately (yet subtly) hanging on to their jobs for fear of losing their incomes or protecting their lifestyles or fearful that their children will not be able to have a future in this country.

 

Policy Response

So what have the responses been from policy makers?

Central bankers have tried to stimulate the economy through low interest rates and quantitative easing programmes. However, this has not created the demand from consumers or stimulated investments that have created jobs in a sustainable manner. If anything, consumers have used lower interest rates to reduce debt levels. Asset prices (property, stock, bonds) have increased in value, benefiting the already wealthy and possibly creating an asset bubble.

In South Africa, government jobs have ballooned which has helped employment figures and in increasing the size of the Black middle class. But, this has not created a sustainable, structural change in the economy that creates jobs in a sustainable way. Fearful that these jobs are not sustainable, we have high levels of corruption and protectionism in our economy. This makes South Africa less attractive as an investment destination.

Business leadership is not playing its role in creating a more inclusive economy. Earlier, I talked about the wealth differentials between the richest (mostly White) and the rest (mostly Black). This is a sad indictment after 23 years of our democracy which has been a relatively peaceful transition. Given the atrocities of Apartheid and the privilege that this has afforded White communities and businesses, I do believe that White businesses can be more forthcoming on alleviating the discrepancies between Whites and Blacks in the country and redressing the ravages of Apartheid.

Earlier I also talked about BEE not having the impact that it was intended to have and in fact possibly also creating unintended consequences. Shouldn’t we take a cold look at this without the emotions that it evokes and ask ourselves how can this be improved?

 

Some thoughts on possible policy changes

Here are some of my thoughts on what we could do in South Africa:

• Incentivise investments in new growth industries – we should be incentivising investments in growth industries like renewable energy, information technology; space exploration, driverless and electric motor vehicles; etc.
• Fix the Basic education System – upscale teachers, provide high tech learning and teaching in our schools. Break the concept that all schools must have the same facilities – this is a noble objective but idealistic. Rather create champion schools initially and roll out the champion models to other schools on a phased approach as resources become available. Create a globally competitive mindset.
• Revisit BEE – the current BEE model creates a mindset of limited resources rather than one of abundance. A few have benefited but we need to rethink how we can create access for the many who are left out in the cold. We need to rethink how we develop and retain critical skills and investments; and how we create more opportunities rather than trying to share from a shrinking pie.
• Encourage entrepreneurship – make artisanal skills development a priority. Develop a plan to increase the quality and quantity of our STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) graduates. Incentivise them to stay in the country. Develop a plan to encourage entrepreneurs.

 

Investor responses

As investors, we understand that certain realities are here to stay: you cannot reverse the trends of technological advancements and globalisation. Similarly, you cannot miss out on the opportunities to create wealth that will not only benefit you and your family, but also the community at large. It is important to understand that you need to have a clear plan to build wealth for you and your family. You cannot rely only on your income to improve your standard of living. If you do have wealth, you will be able to influence where your investments go.

A philosophy that we follow is to invest in innovative businesses, because these businesses are generally more sustainable in the long-term. A strategy that we follow is to try and identify those companies that take advantage of trends such as technological innovation and if their valuations are reasonable, we invest in them. In this way, we participate in earning from productivity gains.

Lastly, we do not ignore the potential social implications of these irreversible trends and hence we play an active role as citizens in influencing policy debates and changes so that ultimately we can have a more inclusive economy. A more inclusive economy by definition is beneficial to all and certainly more sustainable. Ultimately, we all aim to improve our quality of life. Building wealth goes a long way in helping us improve our quality of life.[/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

Our first quarterly review

Market Context

The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund (LBWFA) was launched on 1 June 2016. In our first quarter to 31 August 2016, several significant events have been playing out locally and globally, which impact the investment markets:

• The ongoing, so-called SARS war between the South African Finance Minister and his adversaries;
• A potential for a ratings downgrade (to non-investment grade or junk status) for South Africa;
• Allegations and counter-allegations of corruption within state-owned enterprises and government departments;
• A significant reduction in the ANC’s majority and a loss of major metropolitans to opposition parties in the recent local government elections;
• British voters voting to leave the European Union;
• Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination for the US Presidential elections;
• Ongoing speculation on when the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the USA.

 

The effects of the above has been felt quite significantly in the South African market. In particular, we have seen the Rand react (both positively and negatively) quite substantially when news on any of the above issues flows. The JSE has been looking for direction and also influenced by foreign investors (risk-on versus risk-off). The Price Earnings Ratio (PE) of the market as a whole is quite high, but shows quite a large variation between the different sectors. In particular, the large capitalisation shares like Naspers, SAB Miller, BAT, etc. have quite high PE’s influencing the market PE as a whole.

 

Our view is that the market is still largely influenced by central bank policies and currency fluctuations. Further, we believe that market is not sufficiently pricing in potential risks. Two recent cases in point: Mr Price and Aspen profit warnings have seen quite sharp corrections in their (and related industry) share prices.

 

How have we positioned the fund in this context?

We have taken a patient and somewhat conservative approach in the fund given this context. When we launched the fund, we had approximately 50% in cash and 50% in South African equities. This has changed somewhat and is reflected in the two pie charts below:

Figure 1

 

 

Figure 2

 

Even though we have increased our equity position (generally buying in the dips), we are still only 63% in equities. We also took the opportunity to remit cash offshore when the Rand strengthened. Our Top 10 Equity Holdings as at the end of August was as follows:

Figure 3

 

Needless to say, we are quite happy with the portfolio as it stands at the moment. We believe that we have some great businesses in our portfolio that support certain key investment themes. We are also satisfied that our positions (and size of positions) reflect our view of the valuations of these businesses.  Lastly, that at a portfolio level, we believe that our sector allocation is at a satisfactory level given where we see value at this point in time.

 

We believe that the structure and shape of the portfolio will change as the market changes. We have a number of other great businesses that we would like to own. At the appropriate time, we will buy into those businesses. We do prefer to hold onto businesses for the long-term, but also prefer to have concentrated positions in those businesses.

 

The table below provides a synopsis of our likes and dislikes of our Top 6 equity holdings at this time. It is not a comprehensive analysis, but rather a quick view of how we are thinking about these businesses:

 

Business	Likes	Dislikes	Investment Themes Supported
Omnia	– Innovative technology – Scalable – Back-door entry into potential resource revival – Valuation – Agriculture	– Liquidity – May take a while for resources to recover	– Innovation – Growing Emerging Markets Middle Class
Aspen	– Global generics and OTC business – Owner Managers – Strategic positioning in geographies and product portfolio	– Valuation high – Risks in some markets (e.g. Venezuela)	– Aging populations – Growth in Emerging Markets Middle Class – Exponential growth in Technology
PSG	– Diversified business – Owner managers – Disruptors – Focussed on solving SA problems – Private Equity potential upside	– Underlying businesses pricey	– Growing Emerging Markets Middle Class – Innovative – Exponential growth in Technology Changing preferences of millennials
Discovery	– Innovative – Owner Manager – Upside from global initiatives – Behavioural driven business model	– Valuation, especially price to Embedded Value – Banking foray – Initiatives need to start delivering	– Aging populations – Growth in Emerging Markets Middle Class – Exponential growth in technology – Changing preferences of millennials
Shoprite	– Rest of Africa strategy – Positioned for the cost conscious shopper – Owner Manager – Innovative arrangements with property owners	– SA Consumer struggling – Ability to remit cash from some countries	– Growth in Emerging Markets Middle Class
FirstRand	– Great franchises – Owner manager driven culture – Innovative – Valuation (especially ROE)	– Impact on funding if ratings downgrade	– Changing preferences of millennials – Growth in Emerging Markets Middle Class

Table 1

 

How have we performed since inception?

We are satisfied with our performance to date, but are mindful that it is still very early days in the fund. Figure 4 below shows the fund’s performance against the market benchmarks we measure ourselves against. Our weighted benchmark is 75% of the ALSI and 25% of the NASDAQ, converted to Rands.

 

Figure 4

 

As can be seen we are outperforming our benchmark, but gave back some of our gains that we made in July 2016 during August 2016. Our outperformance (net of fees) against the benchmark is 3.67% for the period. BUT, it’s still very early days.

 

 

Strategy

In our investment strategy over the next quarter, we will:

1. Continue to be patient in our investment approach, waiting for prices to better reflect value before we invest more funds in great companies for the long-term; and
2. Begin investing our offshore cash, again on a patient and steady approach. We are allowed to hold a maximum of 25% of our funds offshore.

 

Conclusion

Despite the turbulence in the market, we are pleased with our start and our performance. We have no doubt that we will continue to face headwinds along the way and that the markets will also provide great opportunities for investing. Whilst we will be patient in investing our funds, we will also not hesitate to be more aggressive if the market conditions provide great opportunities for us.

Kilimanjaro

Last month, my wife and I, together with eight great friends had the very challenging opportunity to hike up to the highest point in Africa, Uhuru Peak on Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. Uhuru peak is at 5895 metres above sea level and is also the highest free standing mountain in the world.  We had chosen to go up via the Lemosho route over 7 days.

In this blog, I would like to draw on some of the lessons we learnt doing the hike and how this may be used in thinking about investing.

Lesson 1: You have the capacity and capability of achieving much more than what you think your limit is.

• Certainly all of us in the group and many others who have hiked up Kili (as she is affectionately known as), whom we have spoken to; have described this as one of the (if not the) most difficult physical challenge we ever had to endure. It required a deep mental resolve and determination in order to be able to summit.
• Not only did we need to be physically fit, but we had to endure the elements: wind, dust, cold, altitude; and also the lack of modern conveniences like running water, flushing loos and warm beds.
• So the lesson that I take away from this is that if you have the mental resolve, you can achieve much more than what you think your limit is. You just have to test yourself. Maybe you can do with a little less spending every month and use that to invest for the long term? Ultimately, it is only with some sacrifice and lots of endurance that you will be able to achieve your long-term investment objectives and aspirations.
• Another lesson that I draw from this is that you will have to endure market conditions throughout your investment journey. At times, those conditions will be very treacherous, and you will have to be able to cope with this if you if you want to achieve your investment aspirations. When markets are treacherous, it will certainly test your mental resolve. This is when you dig deep and make sure that you are able to withstand these conditions in your investment portfolio.
• In a previous blog, I talked about an investment club from the township that has achieved extraordinary growth (beyond each member’s wildest dreams) just through sheer determination and resolve. You have the capability of achieving much more than what you think your limit is.

 

Lesson 2: Some things are best done slowly.

• One of the first things we learnt from our guides during the hike was the Swahili words ‘pole pole’. It literally means slowly slowly. Unless you are a super-being, with great athletic capabilities and you have the ability to cope with altitude, then the best way to summit Kili is by doing it slowly. Slowly slowly. Pole pole.
• Our guides paced us at a slow shuffle from the first step on Day 1. Even though initially we could have walked at a faster pace, we were being trained to slow down, so that we do not run out of steam. Our minds and bodies were being conditioned to slow down, so that we can conserve energy and to allow our bodies to acclimatise to the altitude.
• In our everyday lives, we are so accustomed to rushing to get things done and to meet our commitments. But if you rush on the mountain, you burn out very quickly and reduce your chances of summiting dramatically. Slowing down was hard for this Jo’burg kid at first!
• With a moderate level of fitness, most people will be able to summit Kili if they pace themselves appropriately from Day 1.
• Investing in many ways is the same. Take time to build up your portfolio. Acquire little bits of great companies over time and you will likely be more successful in your investing strategy. If you try to swing for the fences, you will likely burn out quickly. Remember what I wrote in a previous blog: It’s not timing the market but TIME IN the market!
• Pole pole also implies that you need to take the time to develop your investment philosophy and approach, to study the businesses that you want to be invested in – read their annual financial statements, understand the industry that they operate in, who their management is and whether they have skin-in-the game.
• Pole pole also means that you need to ignore the bombardment of ‘tips’ by so-called experts, ignoring the minute-by-minute or daily fluctuations in the market, not watching the screen all day, and not trying to react to every tweet or breaking news story.
• Warren Buffet read the annual reports of IBM for 50 years before he started making an investment in the company. Only when he was convinced that this was a good investment did he finally decide to invest in the business. Now how pole pole is that for making an investment decision?
• Personally, I will make some additional time for reading great books on subjects that interest me and also study company annual reports more rigorously.

 

Lesson 3: Eat, Hydrate and Focus.

• We were also encouraged by our guides to eat when we still had an appetite, hydrate throughout the hike and lastly to stay focussed.
• When you are faced a long and difficult task, you need to ensure that you have the right resources to carry you through and that you do have a high degree of focus on the task at hand.
• In investing, this is similar. Make sure that you arm yourself with the knowledge to make the right investment decisions. Keep educating yourself about the market and the companies that you are invested in, so you don’t make rash decisions when there is a dislocation in the market.
• Staying focussed on the task at hand allows you to attain your long-term goals and aspirations. There’s a famous saying by Lao Tzu that the journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. I would like to humbly add that you need to take each step at a time – i.e. start with the first step and stay focussed on every step.
• If you are in the fortunate position of having a regular job or income, then now is the time for you to nourish your balance sheet, by feeding it every month so that you can build up a reserve that you can use one day when you need it.

So there goes some really great lessons that I learnt whilst hiking up to Uhuru Peak, Mt. Kilimanjaro:

• Your threshold is much higher than you think – test yourself!
• Pole pole – some things can only be done slowly slowly by us mere mortals. If you don’t do it slowly, there is a very high probability of not meeting your objectives. If you do it slowly, there is a much higher probability of achieving more than what you thought yourself capable of.
• Build up your resources because you will be needing it when things get much tougher. Stay focussed on the task at hand and give yourself the resources to stay focussed on every step.

My final words are of deep gratitude to my wife, my hiking friends, our guides and porters who made our hike up Kili possible, with great memories and full of wonderful life lessons.

 

Asante sana!

 

Curse or Blessing in disguise?

Lunar Capital, the company I co-founded last year and Boutique Collective Investment Schemes have partnered and launched an investment fund (Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund) on 1 June 2016. If someone had told us that Brexit was going to happen later in the month, I’m pretty sure we would have either delayed the launch or possibly had another strategy for the fund. However, we know that no-one knows for sure what will happen in the future. So the paradox that we as investment managers face is that we sell the future, yet we are unable to guarantee the future. Arguably, Brexit could have been predicted given how close the polls were calling the vote. But, there was always going to be uncertainty until the final result.

 

In a previous blog, I gave you some of thoughts on how to invest in the current market.  Basically, I suggested that the current market is overvalued as a result of a number of factors, but that you should have a good understanding of the businesses that you want to be invested in, i.e. those that meet your long-term investment criteria and build up a stake in those businesses at a slow rate. Where possible, if the market does show weakness, you can buy a bit more or if not, you can slow down your purchases even more. When you think that valuations are good, then you can be a bit more aggressive in your purchases.

 

To know how to get to your destination, you need to know where you are first?

When the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund (LBWFA) was launched, it was seeded by a number of investors, including myself. The seed funding took place in the form of cash and shares. So, our first task as investment/portfolio managers was to develop a strategy for how we were going to get our portfolio from what it was when we started it, to what we want it to be in the long-term.

In this blog, I will share with you how we are going through this.

 

Develop a Target Portfolio

The first task we set about was to develop a Target Portfolio. For this, we started with our key investment themes, which we depict in the diagram below:

 

Our Key Investment Themes

 We then scanned the market and identified the companies (i.e. businesses that we would love to own) that we had a reasonable understanding of, that could benefit from one or more of these themes. This was not an exhaustive list, but we identified approximately 40-50 local and offshore companies on this list.

We then whittled this down to 15 companies (we do want a concentrated portfolio, so ideally, we want to be invested in a maximum of approximately 12 companies at any point in time). This forces us to focus our mind. We weighted these 15 companies, e.g. 9% for a high conviction investment; 5% for one with a bit more risk. We also tried to balance the companies and weightings to the various sectors and between local and offshore (subject to regulatory requirements). Thus, we created a Target Portfolio.

 

Where are we?

The next step was to identify what we inherited through the seeding of the fund. The most beneficial part of this was that a large part of the seeding portfolio was in cash. We were particularly pleased with this and in fact most of us were holding on to cash to seed the portfolio, because we were concerned about the high valuation levels on the market.

For the remainder of the portfolio, we put the investments into the following buckets:

• Investments that fitted in with our Target Portfolio. This was the second largest pot (after cash), and we decided not to sell any of these.
• Investments that we didn’t like, for whatever reason.
• Investments in sectors that we like, but not our first choice company in that sector.
• Offshore investments, i.e. primarily offshore businesses or instruments (Exchange Traded Funds) listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

This grouping allowed us to develop a strategy around each group.

 

What did we do?

• For the investments that we didn’t like, we simply decided to sell out of them and we did this over a 2 week period. We also, utilised the proceeds from these sales to buy into Target Portfolio companies, particularly those that we either had none of or very little of in our portfolio and where we though that the valuations were reasonable (not necessarily cheap).
• Similarly, we swopped out those investments in sectors that we liked, but that were not our first choice companies in that sector, with our first choice companies in those sectors.
• Overall, we also increased our equity exposure from just below 50% to around 57% today, buying when there was a dip in the market in small quantities and to shape our portfolio closer to our Target portfolio.
• In a few weeks’ time, when our offshore accounts are open, we will sell the “Offshore Investments” bucket of investments and use the proceeds plus any additional amounts we have targeted to direct offshore investments. We are mindful ofcourse, that the currency and equity markets may play havoc with our decision making and timing. We would consider drip feeding into the offshore portfolio as well.

 

What does the portfolio look like now?

The graph below shows you our core holdings in the portfolio at this point in time.

As you can see, quite a conservative portfolio, but also how it fits our investment themes. As we go along, we will keep on evaluating this portfolio and building on it. In particular, we will be increasing our equity exposure as valuations reach better levels.

Closing

By sharing how we went about getting to our current portfolio and also showing you that it is work in progress, we hope that this will stimulate you into either starting to build your portfolio or developing a strategy to change your portfolio to be more ‘shaped’ in the way that you want it to be.

Also, by sharing this with you, I wanted to alert you to the fact that there is no perfect time to start a portfolio, unless of course you have the benefit of hindsight.  However, you can take a prudent approach, by defining a strategy, and slowly moving in that direction. Moving faster when valuations are better and slower when valuations are higher. In this way you will reduce the risk of getting you timing wrong.

I’ll leave you with a saying and a mantra that I adhere to:

It’s not timing the market but time in the market that builds wealth.

Over many years of investing, one develops an investment philosophy and approach that you start feeling comfortable with. You know that it is not risk free, but you are confident that it gives you a framework for making your investment decisions. It’s also not cast in stone, so you are continuously making adjustments to it as you gain experience in the markets and you hone your investing skills.

In this blog, I will outline the methodology that we use in investing. I must stress that investment styles differ significantly and one can find many counter arguments for any given strategy or style. What is important is that you should be aware of the investment philosophy or style that you are following at any point in time and you should only deviate from this in a deliberate and considered way. You should follow a style because you are comfortable with that style. Similarly, through learning and experience, you should adjust your style accordingly; but be deliberate about this adjustment or change in style. You should give your preferred philosophy the time to mature, rather than chopping and changing. Remember that you are in this for the long-term, and investment cycles play out over a very long time.

Before I go into our Investment Selection methodology, I want to stress the importance of learning, and learning through experimentation. Use every opportunity to learn: Why did a particular investment pay off? What assumptions did you make, and were they in fact the reasons for success or failure? Was there an element of luck (good or bad) in your call? What will you do differently from here on?

The matrix below summarizes how we choose to invest in businesses:

 

The Price Continuum

Let’s start with how we determine whether a share price is high or low. A price is high or low relative to the intrinsic value of a share or company. To determine this, we look at the following:

• Market Value: what is the current market value of the company? How does it compare to its peers? If the market value was immaterial with respect to your financial circumstances, would you buy that business?
• Earnings: What are the earnings of the company? How stable or secure is the earnings, i.e. are these quality earnings? Is the earnings real, i.e. how does it compare to the cash flow of the company? We like companies with good quality earnings that are reflected in the cash flow of the company. One of the measures that we look at to determine quality of earnings is the gross and net margins of the company.
• Current Price:Earnings Ratio: what is the current PE of the company? Is there some extraordinary items that either inflate or deflate the PE? What is the adjusted (for extraordinary items) PE? How does it compare to the historical PE of the company? How does its stack up against its peers?
• 3-Year Forecast: attempt a 3-year forecast of the company’s growth prospects. This is where you would take into account the analysis of sectoral and demographic trends that we discussed in the last section, if the company is ‘in-the-zone’ of the investment themes, then you would expect a higher than normal growth rate.
• PEG Ratio: we love companies where the Average 3-year growth forecast is greater than the Current PE; what is termed as the PEG Ratio. When the PEG ratio is > 1, in general we are buyers, when below 1, we are sellers, and almost definitely not buyers. In fact, in our experience, 10-baggers, i.e. those shares that grown to 10 times the value we originally bought them for, are the shares when the growth rate extends over longer than the 3- year horizon we originally looked at. Forecasting growth is not trivial (nobody has a crystal ball) though and hence we look at some of the other metrics in this section as well.
• Price to Book: the price of the share versus the net asset value of the share is also a good indicator of value, especially when compared to peers and the company’s history.
• Return on Equity (ROE): ROE is a great indicator of whether a company is efficiently run or not. We tend to favour companies where the ROE’s are generally, but reasonably higher than peers
• Gearing: gearing helps ROE, but too much gearing introduces risk when business doesn’t go as well as was anticipated.
• Dividend Yield: we tend to favour companies that pay dividends, but do make exceptions to this for companies that are on a steep growth trajectory and require capital for expansion and they pay low or no dividends;
• Risk: we also like to understand whether companies are reliant on specific commodities or currency rates. Whilst we do not say that we will not invest in these companies, we are sensitive to when these commodity prices or exchange rates turn and are quick to get out of these investments. These we prefer to trade or ride through a cycle;
• Sentiment: management sentiment in a company is also a good indicator of whether we should be buying or selling. We prefer positive, but realistic sentiments from management.

 

The table below shows you how we summarise this information and we use this to determine where we assess the Price of a company is relative to how we value the company, i.e. on the Price axis of the Price Value Matrix.

Whilst the above table does already give one a sense of the quality of a company, we also assess the following to determine where we place the company on the Quality continuum:The Quality Continuum

• Industry: is this one of our preferred industries determined from our sectoral analysis; is it cyclical;
• Management: how do we rate the quality of the company’s management and people; is management aligned with shareholders; is this an owner/manager company?
• Brand: does this company have a market leading brand; does the brand capture the sectoral trends that we identified;
• Innovation: is this an innovative company; can its innovations be used beyond SA; can its innovations capture greater market share and higher margins?
• Strategy: what is the strategy of the company and do we buy into this, does it align with our sectoral trends, is the company growth oriented and does it have legs left in its growth?

 

So, what we have described above is our philosophy and methodology for learning about investing, valuing and assessing the quality of companies that we want to invest in and finally placing that company on the Price Quality Matrix.

 

Where we assess a good quality company at a low price relative to its intrinsic value: we BUY that share/company and in fact may also take a higher than average position in that company. Quality companies at good prices relative to their intrinsic value, are very hard to come by and therefore when the opportunity comes you must take full advantage of this. These opportunities come when times are bleak and the market is very bearish. You also will need to have some patience during these times, as it may take a while for the bearish trend to reverse.

 

We AVOID poor quality companies that are assessed to have high prices.

 

Most times however, we find that the companies that we want to invest in, i.e. high quality companies, are in fact priced high relative to our valuation of its intrinsic value. This puts us in a quandary if we do not have any holdings in that company. If we think that the price is not too high and we are in a bull market, we will invest in those companies, but in small chunks. These generally have paid off in bull markets; but have lost us money when the markets turn bearish quickly. We do tend to HOLD these counters if we are already invested in them if we already have them in the portfolio. We may lighten our holding if the position is very high as a percentage of the portfolio.

 

At times we may TRADE in lower quality companies that may offer value over a short period of time; but these tend to be small bets over short periods of time with strict stop loss limits.

In this blog, I want share with you some of my thinking on how I would position an investment portfolio in the current market.

Central banks

The current market in South Africa and globally is influenced by a number of factors. What stands out for me however is the role of central bankers in trying to stimulate growth through ultra-easy monetary policy, i.e. keeping interest rates artificially low, in fact even negative in real terms. These low rates ultimately influence asset prices by inflating their value. This can be observed in the high relative valuations (price earnings ratios) in the market.

Arguably, any sign that interest rates (globally) will normalise, will quickly result in asset prices being lowered significantly. We witnessed the turbulence in the markets when the US Federal Reserve stopped its quantitative easing programme and started raising interest rates (albeit very cautiously). The challenge for investors, however is that it is very hard to predict how central bankers will act. The complexity is further compounded because central bankers are not a homogenous group and do not act as one. When the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the European and Japanese central banks in fact decreased interest rates. This resulted in some whipsawing in the markets. By the way: the relevance for South Africa is that cheap money looks for assets anywhere in the world, including South African assets, thus also impacting South African asset prices.

South Africa

For South African investors, additional complexities arise: an ANC government that is split along factional lines, the scourge of corruption in the country, insufficient growth to meet the needs of job seekers and to meet government expenditure requirements, the potential for a sovereign credit ratings downgrade; etc. But perhaps the biggest problem facing the country is that failure of government policy in stimulating growth, creating jobs, reducing high levels of inequality and making South Africa a globally competitive business environment. Entrepreneurial, professional, technical and artisanal skills are not being sufficiently developed to give South Africans coming into the job market a better chance of getting meaningful employment and to make South Africa a stable and globally competitive environment.

Overvalued Market?

We can see from the picture below, obtained from an article by Steve Blumenthal in www.valuewalk.com that looking at it from a historical basis, the current market is overvalued and that returns are likely to be on the lower end if one is investing broadly in the market at these levels. The picture shows the valuation and subsequent 10-years returns.

 

The JSE ALSI is trading at a PE of approximately 21.5. This is also at an aggregate level, in expensive territory. So, if you want to invest, you need to be much more discerning, making decisions very hard for investors.

 

What to do?

The first question to ask then is:

“Is there any positives amongst all this doom and gloom?”

The doom and gloom should not be ignored, but one also should not be carried away by it. So, my first recommendation would be to be more risk averse in the current market. As a guideline, I would suggest that holding some cash that can be deployed when more favourable investment opportunities present themselves would not be such a bad idea.

The problem however, is that one does not know how long the current circumstances will last. As the saying goes: “nobody rings the bell at the top or the bottom of the market”, so one does have to retain some investments in the market. In a previous blog, on growth at a fair price, I discussed how you need to choose key sectoral themes and identify businesses that will take advantage of those themes.

Some of the themes that I think may play out over the next few years are depicted in the diagram below:

 

If these are the themes that will play out over the next 3-10 years, then one should be looking at those businesses that can take advantage of these trends. So, a second strategy that I would adopt is to have approximately 25%-35% of one’s investment portfolio offshore as the businesses that will benefit from some of these trends are listed in offshore markets and there may be very limited opportunities in the South African market.

Let’s take a few examples: businesses like Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook cut across a number of themes:

• Changing preferences of millennials
• Aging Populations in developed markets
• Pace of technological breakthrough
• Rapid urbanisation with megacities

There really are no equivalent businesses in the South African market that are in a similar league, yet most people are users of one or more of those companies services in South Africa. So, to get exposure to those businesses, one has to have offshore exposure. Warning: I am not necessarily suggesting that you buy into these businesses, as you would still need to conduct a valuation analysis to determine if the price is less than its intrinsic value before you invest in them. However, I do recommend that you do at least have a closer look at whether you should invest in these businesses if you accept the themes in the diagram above.

Now, one would have some cash, some offshore exposure, but there is still a large chunk of one’s portfolio left. Let’s assume that you are looking for equity exposure with the rest. Where would you look to find opportunities?

 

World Class South African Businesses

South Africa is home to a number of world class businesses.

Another one of my favourite businesses in South Africa is Discovery. Discovery is owner-managed, i.e. the owners have a large stake in the business. It is highly innovative, continuously seeking out new products, continuously analysing data so that it can be more efficient, price sharper, identify fraud, etc. It has the ability to attract great talent. Its Vitality loyalty programme is one of the best in the world, and it is continuously seeking opportunities in other markets. On the negative side, some of their products and ventures have not been as successful as expected and project costs have been higher than planned.

Discovery plays into the themes of:

• Rising African Middle Class
• Changing preferences of millennials
• Aging Populations in developed markets
• Pace of technological breakthrough

The share price is down by more than 25% since its peak of R155.77 per share, but still trading at a historical price earnings ratio of approximately 20. Still a bit expensive in my book, but if it manages to ride the waves of the sectoral trends, it may yet be a great investment even at these price levels.

Other South African world-class businesses that are globally competitive and provide opportunities for investors, include FirstRand, Standard Bank, Sanlam, PSG, Capitec, Mediclinic, Shoprite, Aspen to name a few. However, if there is a correction in the market, in all likelihood, these companies’ share prices will also probably come down, offering better entry points for investors. Some prices have already come down (perhaps not sufficiently) as we see with Discovery. So, if one does not have these quality businesses in one’s portfolio, a strategy could be to start slowly building up stakes in these businesses, with a view to be more fully invested over a few months or even a year or two, depending on the price entry points. One should also take advantage when prices are down, bearing in mind that sentiment will probably very low at that time. This is when your conviction is severely tested.

Conclusion

In summary, my view is that the markets are expensive at the moment and very difficult to predict as a result of central bank and government actions. Having some cash in one’s portfolio to take advantage when markets weaken is not a bad strategy. Similarly, my view is that approximately 25-35% on one’s portfolio should be in offshore assets. Lastly, if you haven’t already started, then begin building positions in great South African businesses that are likely to take advantage of key demographic trends.

Finally, I would also not recommend that anyone invests for a single outcome, e.g. Rand weakening or Rand strengthening. Invest with a view to manage the risks if your view/s do not pan out. The market is not always rational, especially in the short term.

 

 

Sabir