Nvidia

Nvidia: Friend or Foe

Nvidia: Friend or Foe

Nvidia designs state-of-the-art Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) which are among the most advanced available in the market. Their GPUs are essential for handling and processing extensive workflows required for training and operating Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications. Nvidia’s latest Blackwell chip is priced at approximately $35,000 each. These chips are primarily sold to Big Tech companies such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and other AI providers with the financial capacity to procure them.  

Competitors like Intel and AMD have been attempting to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in the GPU market. Nvidia’s revenue for the recent quarter was $35.1 billion, an increase of 94% year over year. This growth was mainly driven by their data centre segment, which accounted for 87 percent of Nvidia’s revenue this quarter. In comparison, AMD’s data centre revenue was $3.5 billion for the quarter. 

Nvidia’s customers are significantly increasing their demand for Nvidia’s chips. They are all expanding their capacity and raising their capital expenditure to build platforms for training and running models. Nvidia’s customers are determined not to fall behind in the AI industry. As it currently stands, over the next five years, Big Tech companies plan to invest over $1 trillion in AI.  

The Big Tech companies are increasingly dissatisfied with the costs and “single point of failure” risk associated with Nvidia’s products. Consequently, many companies are developing their chips to reduce their dependence on Nvidia’s technology. Amazon, for instance, is planning to integrate its suite of products with Nvidia’s offerings. Unlike Nvidia’s versatile chips, Amazon’s products are designed for specific tasks, which can help lower the expenses of running certain AI applications.  

Nvidia continues to hold a significant share of the market. Their operating margin for the quarter was 62%, highlighting the premium their customers are still willing to pay for their products.  

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This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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Nvidia: Priced to Perfection

Nvidia: Priced to Perfection

Over the past two years, Nvidia’s stock price has increased nearly 700%, bringing its market capitalization to $2.9 trillion as of Friday. This remarkable growth has made Nvidia one of the largest companies in the world, trailing only behind industry giants like Apple and Microsoft. 

Nvidia’s success is largely driven by the sale of its high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI platforms, which are crucial for training data-intensive AI workloads. As companies and organizations increasingly focus on developing artificial intelligence models, they seek processing power and energy efficiency—areas where Nvidia’s GPUs are currently unmatched in the market. 

Last week, Nvidia’s Q2 2025 results were among the most anticipated of this earnings season. The company reported an impressive $30 billion in revenue for the quarter, marking a 122% year-over-year increase. Operating income also saw significant growth, rising 174% year-over-year to $18.6 billion. 

Nvidia’s gross margin came in at 75.1% for the quarter, down from 78.4% in the previous quarter but up from 70.1% in the same period last year. Despite this slight dip compared to the previous quarter, both gross and operating margins have been on a strong upward trajectory since early last year, driven by the immense demand for Nvidia’s AI platforms. The graph below shows the change in Nvidia’s margins since the beginning of last year. 

Operating Margins

The slight downturn in margins this quarter was primarily attributed to delays in the launch of their new AI platform, Blackwell, which is now expected to ship in Q4 this year. During the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang reassured investors that Nvidia remains committed to releasing new platforms on a yearly rhythm, emphasizing the company’s focus on delivering faster and more energy-efficient chips. 

Despite Nvidia’s impressive performance, several questions remain. How much additional efficiency is AI bringing to companies adopting the technology? Will the major tech players, who are heavily investing in Nvidia’s platforms, continue to spend at this rate? And could other companies be developing chips that might eventually surpass Nvidia’s offerings? 

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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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AI: The Energy Saga

AI: The Energy Saga

Generative AI relies on supercomputers to perform complex calculations and answer increasingly intricate questions. It is thus highly dependent on advanced semiconductors (chips), large data sets and powerful algorithms (models). The energy requirements of these processors, which are typically housed in datacentres, are enormous and require stable and secure power sources.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy for data centres, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence accounted for roughly 2% of global energy demand in 2022. The IEA forecasts that the energy demand could almost double from 460 TWh in 2022 to about 800 TWh by 2026. However, these estimates may vary significantly depending on the actual demand for generative AI products and services over the next two years.

Cloud computing giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are heavily investing in their data centres to enhance their capabilities for running complex AI applications. This involves training and inferencing (producing outputs) with AI models. Consequently, their energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have risen. According to Alphabet’s 2024 Environmental Report, their greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 48% since 2019. The growing demand for AI, combined with Alphabet’s termination of some clean energy projects, has led to this overall increase in its emissions.

Why haven’t companies simply expanded their energy capacity? Data centres require a stable energy supply that can be adjusted instantly. Renewable energy is not always reliable due to its dependence on unpredictable elements. Nuclear power can provide the needed stability, but building nuclear plants takes more than five years. In contrast, gas-fired plants take about two years to build.

The cloud providers are exploring various ways to increase their access to stable energy sources. Earlier this year, Amazon bought a data centre from US power generator Talen Energy, located next to a nuclear power station. The data centre will be powered with energy from the station.

Microsoft on the other hand, signed a power purchase agreement with Brookfield Asset Management, to support the development of 10.5 gigawatts of renewable energy and to secure their energy requirements and offset their carbon footprint.

At the core of these new data centres are semiconductors responsible for all processing tasks. Nvidia claims that their flagship Blackwell Platform will enable organizations to “build and run real-time generative AI on trillion-parameter large language models at up to 25x less cost and energy consumption than its predecessor.” No wonder everyone is racing to get their hands on these chips.

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Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
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Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
214.18
This Week
216.71
% Change YTD
15.07% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
80 244
This Week
80 797 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
5.08% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
17 733
This Week
18 353 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
22.26% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 460
This Week
5 567 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
16.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.17
This Week
18.18 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-0.66% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.47
This Week
19.72 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-2.23% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
84.87
This Week
86.98 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
13.01% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

AI: The Energy Saga Read More »

Nvidia – Silicon Supreme

Nvidia – Silicon Supreme

Nvidia, the graphics processing unit (GPU) designer, had another standout quarter. Since the beginning of the year, Nvidia’s share price has increased by over 120%. Big tech companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are buying Nvidia’s chips for their data centers so that they can enhance their artificial intelligence capabilities. Companies and researchers are then able to train and run their large language models from these data centers. To get an idea on how these big some of these AI investments have been, Meta (owners of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp) top of acquired 24 thousand H100 GPU chips, which go for between $25000 and $40000 each, to power their Lambda AI service.

Nvidia released their Q1 2025 results last week. Revenue for the quarter was $26 billion, up 262% compared to the same quarter last year. Net income for Nvidia was $14.9 billion, up 628%. Data center revenue, which includes the revenue recognized from the sale of chips for artificial intelligence, was $22.6 billion, up 427% year on year. Nvidia’s gross margin was 78.4% and its net margin 57.1%.

The H100 platform is currently the top-of-the-line chip platform in the market. However, Nvidia has developed a new platform, Blackwell, expected to be released later this year. The Blackwell platform performs 4x faster in training LLM models and 30x faster in inferencing (where the trained LLMs draw conclusions from new inputs) compared to the H100 platform. Nvidia faces the risk of overdeveloping their chips, where customers may wait out certain generations of chips to get the next generation, which is significantly better. Nvidia, however, is confident that current demand far outstrips current supply for both the H100 and Blackwell chips.

Nvidia developed the CUDA software platform to expand the use of its chips in various applications, including AI. However, CUDA is exclusive to Nvidia’s chips. Due to the heavy reliance on Nvidia’s chips, their limited supply, and high costs, other developers have created an open software platform called Triton. This platform allows developers to run AI applications on an array of other chips.

Nvidia also faces significant competition in the chip design field. They are not only competing with established designers like AMD, but also with well-capitalized companies such as Amazon and Microsoft, who are developing their own chips to reduce their reliance on Nvidia. Nvidia has stated that their chip cycle is one year between each generation, so competing companies are aiming at a moving target going at breakneck speed.

Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio Clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
204.58
This Week
207.00
% Change YTD
9.91% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
79 531
This Week
79 112 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.89% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 686
This Week
16 921 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
12.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 303
This Week
5 305 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.21% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.17
This Week
18.41 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
0.60% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.78
This Week
19.96 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-1.04% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
83.93
This Week
82.16 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
6.74% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Nvidia – Silicon Supreme Read More »

Nvidia: Fear of Missing Out

Nvidia – Fear of Missing Out

Companies and nations are investing substantial funds to keep pace in the AI race, focusing on establishing their proprietary artificial intelligence infrastructure. Nvidia is currently reaping the rewards of this trend. They are a semiconductor designer specializing in high-powered chips crucial for training models in accelerated computing and generative AI applications. In addition to these chips, Nvidia provides the essential components that link them, forming supercomputers. This ranges from the switches and wiring to the requisite coding language (CUDA) necessary for running these advanced models on their chips.

Last week, Nvidia unveiled its Q4 2024 results. Their revenue surged by 126% compared to FY2023, reaching $60.1 billion for FY2024. Net profit increased by 581%, soaring to $29.7 billion. Noteworthy is the substantial improvement in the gross profit margin, escalating from 56.9% in FY2023 to an impressive 72.7% in FY2024. Nvidia, as the designer, relies on semiconductor fabrication plants, such as TSMC, for chip manufacturing. This explains the disproportionately higher growth rates in gross and net profit compared to revenue, highlighting Nvidia’s operational leverage.

Companies and countries can’t get enough of Nvidia’s chips, with demand surpassing their current supply capabilities. Nevertheless, there remains a significant concentration among chip buyers. In Q4 2024, 40% of Nvidia’s data centre revenue was attributed to the three primary cloud service providers – Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. These industry giants are still in the early phases of developing accelerated computing and generative AI products. This prompts the following questions:

  1. Is AI a true megatrend, or will it fade away?
  2. Will companies be able to generate sufficient additional revenue or enhance productivity to justify their expenditures on AI technology, including Nvidia’s chips?
  3. What are the enduring implications on society?

Nvidia’s stock price has surged by more than 230% in the past year due to their rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand. However, formidable challenges persist. Intense competition looms, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google striving to develop their own semiconductors for data centres, aiming to reduce dependency on Nvidia. The company faces towering expectations, and even minor deviations from anticipated performance can have a significant impact on their stock price.

Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
203.05
This Week
207.05
% Change YTD
9.94% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
73 616
This Week
74 213 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-3.49% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 776
This Week
15 997 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.56% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 006
This Week
5 089 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.69% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.87
This Week
19.31 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
5.52% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.34
This Week
20.89 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.57% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
83.23
This Week
81.66 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
6.09%Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Nvidia – Fear of Missing Out Read More »

Nvidia – Bringing on the Competition

Nvidia – Bringing on the Competition

Nvidia, the AI chip designer, has had a surge in its share price since the beginning of the year. The company’s share price has increased just over 230% since the beginning of the year. It has been the poster company for investors trying to jump in on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) wave, that has dominated news cycles and conversations over the past year.

Nvidia is renowned for developing the first commercially accessible graphics processing unit (GPU) in 1999. The GPU distinguishes itself from the central processing unit (CPU) by completing less intricate tasks but can do these tasks concurrently. The CPU, on the other hand, can handle more complex tasks but does them sequentially. GPUs have a wide variety of uses such as:

  • Creating visuals for displays on computers
  • Facilitating the computations essential for cryptocurrency mining
  • Contributing to the training of large language models in data centres

Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, owners of the world’s three largest cloud services providers, have been acquiring Nvidia’s premium GPUs for advancing the next phases of AI application development. These high-end chips come at a substantial cost, with Nvidia’s flagship H100 chip priced at approximately $30,000 each. In Q3 2024, Nvidia gross margin reached 74%: a significant increase from the 56% recorded during Q3 2023. The quarter’s revenues soared to $18 billion, marking a remarkable growth of over 200% compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, Nvidia’s net income reached $9 billion for the quarter, indicating a 1200% increase compared to the same quarter last year.

The substantial costs associated with Nvidia’s high-end GPUs have prompted Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet to seek alternatives. Consequently, these tech giants have either already crafted their own chips or are in the process of developing such solutions for use in their data centres. Backed by substantial capital reserves, these companies are investing in chip development endeavours aimed at narrowing the performance gap with Nvidia’s offerings. Nvidia is not stepping back though. The company claims that its upcoming flagship H200, slated for release next year, boasts nearly double the capacity of its predecessor, the H100 GPU.

The competition is further intensifying as traditional semiconductor companies globally vie to capitalize on the AI trend. The race is notably heightened by the US ban on exporting high-performing chips to China, serving as a catalyst for Chinese companies to bolster their presence in the AI chip market. The race is on. As it stands, Nvidia is in the lead but there are many other factors that could favour other winners.

Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible fund. They are also held by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Lunar BCI WW Flexible Fund
Start of Year
141.43
Last Week
176.17
This Week
182.99
% Change YTD
29.39% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
73 049
Last Week
73 921
This Week
75 712 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.65% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
10 467
Last Week
14 125
This Week
14 251 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
36.15% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
3 840
Last Week
4 514
This Week
4 559 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
18.73% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
10.50%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
11.90% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
16.98
Last Week
18.34
This Week
18.77 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.54% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
18.44
Last Week
20.00
This Week
20.53 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.33% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
85.95
Last Week
80.50
This Week
80.26 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-6.62% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Nvidia – Bringing on the Competition Read More »

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