VCS Agency - Lunar Capital

Luxury Wars

Over the last two weeks, luxury fashion houses LVMH, Kering, and Hermes released their revenue figures for the third quarter. The companies reported weaker demand from various regions around the world as consumers show less inclination to purchase luxury items during tighter economic conditions and rising costs. Consumers are more selective with their purchases. The graph below shows the revenue for Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2024 from these luxury houses.

LVMH oversees numerous luxury brands, including Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Moet & Chandon, Hennessy, and Sephora. The company’s revenue dipped by 4%, mainly due to declines in its Wine and Spirits and Fashion and Luxury segments. It was partially offset by a rise in its Perfume and Cosmetics segment. The company operates globally, with an expanding presence in Asia. The depreciation of the Japanese Yen has led to consumers purchasing more in Japan, making Japan one of LVMH’s best-performing regions this year.

Kering, which owns Gucci and Yves Saint Laurent, has a more concentrated portfolio than LVMH. Gucci made up over 40% of Kering’s revenue this quarter but saw a 26% sales drop from the same quarter last year. Facing macroeconomic challenges and a lack of consumer resonance with their products, Kering has changed Gucci’s leadership to try to revitalize the brand. Overall, Kering’s sales declined 15% year over year.

Hermes, which has an even tighter portfolio, has experienced significant growth in the luxury sector in recent years. It has seen its sales this quarter increase by 10% year over year. The company targets ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Some bags sold by Hermes have year-long waitlists and can be priced around ten thousand euros. The company strategically limits the number of items sold to create higher demand for its products.

Consumer preferences can be unpredictable, significantly impacting the success of companies. Luxury brands not only compete with each other, but also compete with athleisure brands like Lululemon, which traditionally were not considered direct competitors.

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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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Chipping Away

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

Last week, TSMC (the semiconductor/chip manufacturer) and ASML (semiconductor-equipment manufacturer) released their respective Q3 2024 results. The outcomes illustrate contrasting scenarios regarding how each company is navigating the AI boom.

TSMC manufactures the semiconductors on behalf of companies such as Nvidia, Apple, and other designers. While ASML makes the advanced lithography machinery that is used in the process of making this machinery. It essentially uses light to etch the circuits onto the silicon to make a semiconductor. ASML sell their machinery to the semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.

For the quarter, TSMC reported a revenue of $23.5 billion, marking a 36% year-over-year increase. Their gross margin rose by 3.5 percentage points to reach 57%, and their operating profit was reported at $11.6 billion, reflecting a 58% year-over-year growth.

The surge in demand for specialized AI chips, which are critical for processing large volumes of data in AI applications, has resulted in a significant number of orders from TSMC. Notably, the high-performance computing segment grew by 11% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 51% of TSMC’s total revenue.

It is estimated that TSMC produces 90% of the worlds super-advanced semiconductors. Intel Samsung, and other fabrication players have not been able to keep up.

In contrast, ASML recorded a revenue of €7.47 billion, representing a 10.6% year-over-year decline. Their gross margin remained stable at 50.8% compared to the same period last year, while their net income fell by 8.8% year-over-year to €2.1 billion.

ASML’s results have not correlated with TSMC’s due to delays in building new fabrication plants, particularly by Intel and Samsung. Despite grants and tax incentives from the Biden administration designed to “near-shore” semiconductor production, these delays have reduced orders for ASML’s advanced lithography machines.

Although ASML maintains an effective monopoly on the sale of advanced lithography machines, their sales can exhibit significant fluctuations due to the cyclical nature of setting up new plants, leading to considerable variability in their revenue streams.

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Quarterly Investment & Performance Review – 30 September 2024

Quarterly Performance / By VCS Agency

Sabir provides an update of the Funds’ performance and how Lunar Capital plans to invest in the current market climate

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JP Morgan: Bank On It

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

JP Morgan, known for its fortress balance sheet, released its Q3 2024 results on Friday. The bank reported net revenues of $42.7 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year increase. Net income for JP Morgan was $12.9 billion, a decline of 2% compared to the previous year. The bank’s return on equity (ROE) for the quarter stood at 16%. This was partly driven by efficiencies from tech investments and lazy deposits (customers who settled for lower returns on their deposits than they would get in other accounts.)

The discrepancy between the rise in net revenue and the decline in net income was attributed to higher provisions for credit losses, which amounted to $3.1 billion, an increase of 125% from the same period last year. Despite this, JP Morgan’s balance sheet is well-positioned to withstand such financial pressures.

Following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the Basel III framework was introduced to enhance banking regulation. One significant part of the regulation requires banks to maintain a common equity tier 1 (CET 1) ratio of at least 4.5%. Regulators may require higher ratios from specific banks. The CET 1 ratio reflects a bank’s core capital, comprising common shares, retained earnings, and additional paid-in capital. It is considered the most secure form of capital, essential for enhancing a bank’s financial resilience and safeguarding depositors during financial shocks. JP Morgan’s CET1 ratio is 15.3% on risk weighted assets of USD1.8tn, giving it an estimated loss-absorbing capacity of USD544bn.

With such a large asset and capital base, and broad product suite; JP Morgan services over 82 million US consumers, 6 million small businesses and 40 thousand large- and medium businesses around the world. JP Morgan’s strong balance sheet also allows it to take advantage of growth opportunities when the market goes through a downturn.

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Nike: Will they Do It?

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

Nike, which was expected to be ideally positioned for “running mania”, released its Q1 2025 results. Revenue for the quarter declined by 10% year-over-year, reaching $11.6 billion. Gross margin improved by 120 basis points to 45.4%, while net profits fell by 26%, amounting to $1.05 billion. Nike’s share price has dropped over 22% this year and more than 50% since its peak in November 2021.

Nike, renowned for its innovative products, memorable advertising campaigns, and strong athlete partnerships, has been losing market share to both established and emerging brands such as New Balance, On, and Hoka.

Under the previous CEO, John Donahoe, the company concentrated on expanding its direct-to-consumer business model. This included increasing capacity for its e-commerce channel and further developing Nike-run stores. The goal was to gain better control over sales and improve the bottom line by avoiding consignment fees to wholesale retailers. However, this strategy strained relationships with wholesale partners, leading some to remove Nike products from their stores.

This approach seemed adequate during the COVID-19 pandemic when online shopping surged. However, as demand for Nike’s products began to decline, the company struggled to maintain growth.

The new CEO, Elliott Hill, has placed a strong emphasis on mending relationships with wholesale partners and acknowledged that Nike had deviated from its core strengths of product innovation and designing athletic footwear. Hill believes that that Nike will only be able to generate strong demand for their lifestyle products after they accomplish the feat of designing great athletics wear.

While turnarounds are challenging to implement, especially in a highly competitive fashion and high-performance sports sector, Nike possesses a relatively strong balance sheet with $8.5 billion in cash. Time will determine if they can Do It.

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Good prices and good margin, How has Costco managed it?

Cost Conscious Costco

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

Costco has cultivated a devoted customer base in the US by appealing to price-sensitive consumers, addressing recession concerns, and focusing on selling products at lower margins than competitors. As of Friday, the retailer’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was just under 60, compared to Walmart (41) and Target (16).

Over the last five years, Costco’s share price has risen by just over 200%. Examining the company’s financials, Costco reported revenue of $149 billion and a net income of $3.7 billion in 2019, resulting in a net margin of 2.5%. By 2024, the revenue grew to $253 billion, with a net income of $7.4 billion, reflecting a 2.9% margin.

In its most recent quarter, Costco achieved a gross margin of 11%. For comparison, Walmart’s latest quarter showed a net margin of 2.7% on revenue of $169 billion, with a gross margin of 25%.

Costco has managed to keep product prices low while maintaining respectable net margins through several strategies:

Membership model: Customers must have a Costco membership to shop, encouraging repeated purchases, and allowing Costco to collect personalised client purchasing data.
Bulk purchasing and limited selection: This approach allows Costco to negotiate lower prices and streamline inventory management, reducing costs further.
No-frills operations: By minimizing operational expenses, Costco maintains its ability to sustain a relatively healthy margin.

Given the high P/E ratio, Costco must adhere strictly to its reputation as an “extremely well-run, no-frills business.” Notably, the company’s membership fees are nearly equivalent to its net income, indicating that membership growth is important for overall expansion. Any significant misstep by Costco could lead to a substantial decrease in its stock price.

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Zara Fit Check

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

Inditex, the Spanish business which owns of fashion brands such as Zara, Bershka, Oysho, and Massimo Dutti, published its H1 2024 results last week. Net sales for the period reached €18.1 billion, reflecting a 7.2% increase year-over-year. The cost of sales rose slightly slower than net sales, leading to a 7.5% rise in gross profit to €10.5 billion. Net income climbed by 10.5%, reaching to €2.8 billion. This translated to a net margin of 15.3% for the period, up from 14.9% during the same period last year. The improvement in margin was mainly attributed to amortization and depreciation remaining unchanged from the previous year.

Zara represented 72% of Inditex’s sales for the first half of 2024. Zara’s sales increased by 5.4% compared to the same period last year. While most other brands experienced double-digit growth, their smaller size relative to Zara meant that Inditex’s overall net sales only rose by 7.2%.

Inditex places a strong emphasis on logistics, planning to invest €900 million annually over the next two years. This extra expenditure increases Inditex’s usual annual capital expenditure of €1.8 billion by 50%. Part of the capital expenditure will deployed to increase store space by approximately 5%.

Zara, famous for its quick turnaround time; has the ability to design, manufacture, and stock new items on store shelves within two to three weeks. The company maintains low inventory and has structured its manufacturing to ramp up production when certain items sell well; unlike competitors, who can take months to respond to trends.

Inditex operates in a highly competitive market. Despite having an efficient supply chain model that allows them to compete on design, they are susceptible to supply chain disruptions, such as those witnessed during Covid-19 and the conflict arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Zara also believes that driving sales can be accomplished by attracting customers to their physical stores. To entice visitors, they lease historical and cultural buildings to add a unique appeal to their brand. However, if demand for their brand suddenly drops, they could end up paying higher-than-usual costs for unused space.

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Check(ers) Mate

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

Shoprite, South Africa’s largest retailer, released its 2024 full-year results last week. The company reported total revenue of R240.7 billion, reflecting a 12% increase year-over-year. Their trading profit also saw an increase of 12.4%, reaching R13.4 billion, which translates into a trading margin of 5.5% for the year. Shoprite’s gross profit rose by 11.7% to R57.8 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 24.0% for the year.

Shoprite has been expanding. They have been continuously striving to capture a larger and larger share of the retail market. Since 2021, the group has increased its number of stores by 25.7%, reaching a total of 3,639 outlets. Their Xtra savings loyalty card membership has also surged by 10.7 million members since 2021 to 31 million members at the end of their 2024 financial year. This has greatly aided their data-driven AI strategy to better understand and serve their customers. The expansion and insights have resulted in their sales growing by 43% compared to the 2021 levels.

The brands under Shoprite’s umbrella include Shoprite, Usave, Checkers, Uniq, Medirite, and others. Shoprite caters to both affluent and low-income customers and is present in rural and urban areas alike. The graph below illustrates how Shoprite perceives its brands and their positioning in South Africa. Notably, last year, Checkers, Shoprite’s premium brand which yields slightly higher margins, was the fastest growing brand in the premium supermarket space. The growth was fuelled by the success of their delivery service Checkers Sixty60.

Source: https://www.shopriteholdings.co.za/docs/results-presentation-2024.pdf

Shoprite employs a hub-and-spoke model. When establishing a supermarket like Shoprite or Checkers in a new area, they subsequently set up other branded stores nearby, such as their pharmacy chain Medirite or clothing store Uniq, creating a complementary shopping ecosystem that attracts customers to these auxiliary outlets.

Last week, Shoprite’s share price fell by just over 3%, amid market expectations for slightly stronger results. Shoprite trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 24, which is higher than Pick ‘n Pay’s PE ratio of -11 (due to major write-offs) and Woolworths’ (Woollies) PE ratio of 18. This indicates the premium investors are willing to pay to hold Shoprite shares.

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Nvidia: Priced to Perfection

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

Over the past two years, Nvidia’s stock price has increased nearly 700%, bringing its market capitalization to $2.9 trillion as of Friday. This remarkable growth has made Nvidia one of the largest companies in the world, trailing only behind industry giants like Apple and Microsoft.

Nvidia’s success is largely driven by the sale of its high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI platforms, which are crucial for training data-intensive AI workloads. As companies and organizations increasingly focus on developing artificial intelligence models, they seek processing power and energy efficiency—areas where Nvidia’s GPUs are currently unmatched in the market.

Last week, Nvidia’s Q2 2025 results were among the most anticipated of this earnings season. The company reported an impressive $30 billion in revenue for the quarter, marking a 122% year-over-year increase. Operating income also saw significant growth, rising 174% year-over-year to $18.6 billion.

Nvidia’s gross margin came in at 75.1% for the quarter, down from 78.4% in the previous quarter but up from 70.1% in the same period last year. Despite this slight dip compared to the previous quarter, both gross and operating margins have been on a strong upward trajectory since early last year, driven by the immense demand for Nvidia’s AI platforms. The graph below shows the change in Nvidia’s margins since the beginning of last year.

The slight downturn in margins this quarter was primarily attributed to delays in the launch of their new AI platform, Blackwell, which is now expected to ship in Q4 this year. During the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang reassured investors that Nvidia remains committed to releasing new platforms on a yearly rhythm, emphasizing the company’s focus on delivering faster and more energy-efficient chips.

Despite Nvidia’s impressive performance, several questions remain. How much additional efficiency is AI bringing to companies adopting the technology? Will the major tech players, who are heavily investing in Nvidia’s platforms, continue to spend at this rate? And could other companies be developing chips that might eventually surpass Nvidia’s offerings?

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Snowflake Melting?

Weekly Stocktake / By VCS Agency

Snowflake is strategically positioned to leverage the growing importance of high-quality data in powering AI applications, including both machine learning and generative AI. The premise is simple: the better the input data, the more effective and accurate the AI output.

Snowflake enables organizations to manage and structure their data in the cloud, offering secure and efficient data querying and sharing capabilities. Snowflake has recently invested in integrating a generative AI layer into its platform. This innovation allows users to interact with their data without needing specialized coding knowledge.

In its Q2 2025 results, Snowflake reported a 28.9% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $869 million. However, despite this growth, the company’s gross margin declined slightly to 72%, down from 74% in the same period last year. Additionally, Snowflake recorded an operating loss of $355 million; 41% of the company’s revenue. This was marginally down from an operating loss margin of 42% last year.

One of the persistent challenges for Snowflake, as with many smaller tech companies, is the competition for top-tier talent. Unlike Big Tech with their vast financial resources, Snowflake must find alternative ways to attract and retain skilled professionals. Stock-based compensation has been a key strategy, offering equity in the company as a significant part of an employee’s compensation package. While this approach is effective in attracting talent, it comes with the risk of diluting the company’s share base, reducing each share’s claim on future earnings.

Snowflake faces the delicate balancing act of incentivizing its workforce with equity while managing the potential long-term impacts on shareholder value through dilution. Navigating this fine line is crucial for Snowflake as it continues to scale. Snowflake’s share price dropped by around 10% after the announcement of their results, reflecting shareholder’s desire to see a better balance between shareholder returns and stock-based-compensation.

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