ON Holdings

Nike: Will they Do It?

Nike: Will they Do It?

Nike, which was expected to be ideally positioned for “running mania”, released its Q1 2025 results. Revenue for the quarter declined by 10% year-over-year, reaching $11.6 billion. Gross margin improved by 120 basis points to 45.4%, while net profits fell by 26%, amounting to $1.05 billion. Nike’s share price has dropped over 22% this year and more than 50% since its peak in November 2021. 

Nike, renowned for its innovative products, memorable advertising campaigns, and strong athlete partnerships, has been losing market share to both established and emerging brands such as New Balance, On, and Hoka. 

Under the previous CEO, John Donahoe, the company concentrated on expanding its direct-to-consumer business model. This included increasing capacity for its e-commerce channel and further developing Nike-run stores. The goal was to gain better control over sales and improve the bottom line by avoiding consignment fees to wholesale retailers. However, this strategy strained relationships with wholesale partners, leading some to remove Nike products from their stores. 

This approach seemed adequate during the COVID-19 pandemic when online shopping surged. However, as demand for Nike’s products began to decline, the company struggled to maintain growth. 

The new CEO, Elliott Hill, has placed a strong emphasis on mending relationships with wholesale partners and acknowledged that Nike had deviated from its core strengths of product innovation and designing athletic footwear. Hill believes that that Nike will only be able to generate strong demand for their lifestyle products after they accomplish the feat of designing great athletics wear. 

While turnarounds are challenging to implement, especially in a highly competitive fashion and high-performance sports sector, Nike possesses a relatively strong balance sheet with $8.5 billion in cash. Time will determine if they can Do It.  

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Moving ON - Weekly Stocktake with Danyaal

Moving ON

On Holdings, owners of the On Cloud sports brand best known for its distinctive running shoes, recently released its Q2 2024 results. The company reported a revenue of CHF 567.7 million, marking a 28% increase year-over-year. Operating income rose by 20% to CHF 47.3 million. The brand has a strong presence in the U.S., where 65% of last quarter’s sales originated, showing a growth of over 24% compared to the same period last year. Although the Asia-Pacific region was the fastest-growing market with nearly 74% growth, it only accounted for 10% of the company’s net sales for the quarter. 

The bulk of On Holdings’ revenue (95%) comes from its shoe sales, which grew by nearly 27% year-over-year. As a relatively small brand compared to giants like Nike and Adidas, On Holdings faces both opportunities and challenges. The company has significant potential for growth by expanding into new regions and diversifying its product range.  

One of On Holdings’ recent innovations is a new shoe that is sprayed onto a person’s foot, weighing just 158g for the women’s version. Helen Obiri, a renowned Kenyan middle- and long-distance runner, trained in these shoes for the recent Olympics and was so impressed that she wore them during the Paris Olympics marathon, where she won a bronze medal. This reflects On Holdings’ strategy of collaborating with athletes to design products that cater specifically to their sports. 

ON Holdings

On Holdings does however operate in a highly competitive market, facing rivals ranging from smaller brands like Deckers, which owns the popular Hoka brand, to industry giants like Nike and Adidas. Fashion trends can shift rapidly, and consumer preferences are fickle, posing a constant challenge. For now, On Holdings is capitalizing on current trends, but the landscape could change quickly. 

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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
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Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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