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Alphabet: Is the Search Over?

Alphabet: Is the Search Over?

Alphabet currently trades at the lowest trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio among the major U.S. tech companies. As of last Friday, its P/E stood just above 20—significantly lower than Amazon at 37, Microsoft at 39, Apple at 33, and Meta at 27. This valuation gap reflects investor scepticism about the future of Alphabet’s core business: Search. 

The concern stems from the rise of generative AI platforms, which are increasingly being used as alternatives to traditional search engines. If users begin to favour AI tools over Google Search for information discovery, it could erode Alphabet’s advertising revenue—the foundation of its business model. Google’s search engine monetizes through advertising, and its value to advertisers depends on user volume. Fewer users could mean reduced demand for ad space or lower advertising rates or more likely both. 

Despite these concerns, Alphabet’s Search business remains strong. In its most recent quarter, Search generated $54.2 billion in revenue, up 12% year-over-year, and accounted for 56% of the company’s total revenue. While growth continues, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain as generative AI adoption accelerates. 

Alphabet’s portfolio extends well beyond Search. YouTube Ads brought in $9.8 billion last quarter, a 13% increase year-over-year. This figure excludes revenue from YouTube subscriptions, which adds another layer of monetization. Unlike competitors such as Netflix, YouTube does not commission original content, allowing it to maintain higher margins on its ad-based model. 

Alphabet is also investing heavily in its generative AI capabilities. Its Cloud division—which includes its AI initiatives—posted $13.6 billion in revenue last quarter, up 32% year-over-year, with operating margins reaching 20.7%. The company is focusing on building AI tools for startups, where it sees the most traction. To support this growth, Alphabet has increased its planned capital expenditures to $85 billion, up from $75 billion. The jury is still out on whether this investment will position Alphabet competitively and provide a good return or is this another case of overspending with poor or negative returns.  

Alphabet’s low P/E ratio may reflect market caution, but its financials tell a story of resilience and a possible strategic evolution.  

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Big Tech, Big Spend, Big Question

Over the last two weeks, mega-cap stocks such as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft released their quarterly results. The theme was AI, particularly how much the cloud service providers were paying to build up their capacity and try to win the AI race. Investors were concerned that the cloud service providers were spending too much without clear indications of the large-scale end use cases of AI, the value derived from it, and whether businesses and people would be willing to pay for these products and services. 

Due to the long time it takes to build these data centers and the logistical challenges in securing land, buildings, and chips, the big cloud providers stated that demand still exceeds supply for their AI capabilities. Additionally, they mentioned that the data centers being built offer optionality; if generative AI doesn’t take off, the data centers can be repurposed for other uses; although it will be at a lower operating margin. 

The graph below shows the difference in capital expenditure by the big tech firms this year. Everyone but Apple has significantly increased their spending to build up their capacity for generative AI workloads—whether for training or inferencing. During the earnings calls, all the big tech CEOs indicated they would continue to spend at these increased levels to ensure they don’t miss out on the generative AI opportunity. 

Capital Expenditure

At the moment, the company seeing a real and significant increase in revenue and earnings is Nvidia, the designer of the high-powered chips used to train and inference the data workloads for generative AI. Nvidia is expected to release their results on the 28th of August. The search is on for the companies that will utilize AI within their own operations to give themselves the edge and gain market share in their own industry and possibly beyond. 

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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
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The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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