VCS Agency

Quarterly Investment & Performance Review – 30 June 2024

The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund achieved a Top 10% ranking of all Funds available in South Africa since its inception 8 years ago. Source: Moneymate.

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Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Quarterly Investment & Performance Review – 30 June 2024 Read More »

Nike

Nike Just Not Doing It

Last week Nike released their Q4 and FY2024 results. Revenue for the year was $51.4 billion, flat compared to 2023. Net Income for the year was $5.7 billion, up 12% compared to the same period last year. Below is a graph showing key metrics for Nike over the last four years. Since 2021, Nike’s revenue has increased just over 13 percent. While its net income has remained flat.

Lunar Capital performance 1

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Nike had already started investing in its Nike Direct business, which includes company-operated stores and its e-commerce division. This focus on e-commerce proved beneficial both before and during the pandemic when consumers were unable to leave their homes. Nike Direct accounted for just under 44% of Nike Brand revenue in 2024, compared to 32% in 2019. The wholesale business, which sells to third-party stores on consignment, accounted for 56% of Nike Brand revenue in 2024.

Over the last few years, running has surged in popularity, likely due to pent-up demand from the Covid-19 pandemic. The London Marathon received a record 840,000 applications for the ballot for the 2025 race, surpassing the previous record of 578,000 in 2024. Despite its roots in running, Nike has struggled to capitalize on this trend, losing market share to competitors like On Holding, Hoka (owned by Deckers), and Brooks.

Fashion is fickle. Brands that are successful today may not be next year, and vice versa. Nike faces the challenge of growing revenue from an already high base. For example, Hoka’s 2024 revenue was $1.11 billion, roughly 2% of Nike’s 2024 revenue. Nike has better financial strength compared to many of its competitors to withstand setbacks. It could possibly even use this to pivot its company to get back in favour with consumers.

Nike’s share price is down from a peak of $179.10 (November 2021) to $74.85 per share at the time of writing.

Security Held In:
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
212.51
This Week
214.18
% Change YTD
13.73% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
79 768
This Week
80 244 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
4.36% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
17 689
This Week
17 733 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
18.13% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 465
This Week
5 460 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
14.48% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
17.95
This Week
18.17 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-0.71% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.21
This Week
19.47 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-3.47% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
85.07
This Week
84.87 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.26% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Nike Just Not Doing It Read More »

Adobe or Not Adobe

Adobe is a digital-media company that creates and sells products and tools that are primarily suited towards the creative economy. Their products include Photoshop and Lightroom, which are used to alter images, Premiere Pro, which is the standard video editing tool, and Adobe Document Reader, which allows people to view and export a standardized version of a digital document. There are free versions of their products, but Adobe makes its money from charging users a subscription fee to access all the products’ features.

Two weeks ago, Adobe released their Q2 2024 results. Revenue for the quarter was $5.31 billion, up 10% year on year. And operating income was $1.89 billion, up 16% year on year. The table below is a snapshot from Adobe’s earnings slide, which shows their core driver of revenue: Digital Media (DMe). The Creative segment within DMe accounted for just under 59% of their total revenue this quarter. Creative grew just under 10% year on year – in line with their revenue growth.

Lunar Capital dme

Despite many of Adobe’s products being industry standard tools, they are facing an increasing number of headwinds from both competitors and regulators.

In 2022, Adobe agreed to buy Figma (an interface design tool) for $20 billion. At the time, the deal placed an astronomical 50x revenue valuation on Figma. The deal faced regulatory scrutiny in the EU and was therefore cancelled before it could be completed. Adobe had to pay Figma a cancellation fee of $1 billion. Adobe is now being sued in the US, as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) claims that Adobe makes it too difficult for users to unsubscribe from their products.

Despite Adobe adding generative AI layers to their products, they are facing intense competition from the likes of Microsoft-backed OpenAI. OpenAI has many tools that directly compete with Adobe’s tools, allowing people to generate and edit texts and images using generative AI.

Adobe, once a gold standard, could be one of the first victims in the new generative AI world.

Security Held In:
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
212.26
This Week
212.51
% Change YTD
12.84% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
77 054
This Week
79 768 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.74% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
17 689
This Week
17 689 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
17.84% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 432
This Week
5 465
% Change YTD
14.57% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.38
This Week
17.95 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-1.91% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.69
This Week
19.21 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-4.76% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
82.56
This Week
85.07 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
10.52% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Adobe or Not Adobe Read More »

A Day out Shopping

A Day out Shopping

Lululemon, the athleisure brand, and Inditex (owner of fashion brands such as ZARA, Oysho, and others) primarily share one similarity: they both make clothes. However, these brands are quite different in terms of their target audience, operational methods, and growth stages.

Lululemon, founded in Vancouver, initially made yoga clothing before expanding into other types of athleisure for various sports. Lululemon has just over 700 stores around the world. Lululemon targets the upper-income segment, focusing on creating high-quality products primarily for women. This approach contrasts with other major athleisure brands like Nike and Adidas. Lululemon also sponsors local trainers and influencers, believing they have a closer connection with their community compared to big stars. Lululemon generally sets trends for each season, attempting to design and produce enough to meet the needs of its client base.

Inditex, on the other hand, operates quite differently. Catering to middle and upper-middle income groups, they have just under 7,300 stores worldwide. Inditex’s biggest brand, ZARA, focuses on offering customers the latest trends. ZARA uses a Just-in-Time vertical integration method. Their scouts attend fashion shows to identify trends, which are then sent to designers. These designs are quickly produced in factories and appear on shelves within 2-3 weeks. Depending on demand, ZARA can easily ramp up or scale down production, producing closer to what is actually needed. This results in there being just enough items in their stores to meet demand.

Despite Inditex being just under 4 times bigger than Lululemon in terms of market cap, the graph below shows how similar their gross and operating margins are. The also both have a PE ratio of around 25.

Margin Levels for Lululemon and Inditex
Lunar Capital Lunar
Lunar Capital margin levels

Last week, Lululemon and Inditex released their respective Q1 2024 results. Lululemon’s revenue for the quarter was $2.2 billion, up 10% year-on-year, while operating income was $432.6 million, up 7.7% year-on-year. Lululemon attributed the weakness in their sales growth to a limited colour range in certain women’s products in the US, missing an opportunity to meet demand. Combined with slowing overall demand in the US and Europe, heightened competition in the athleisure space, and the missed opportunity, Lululemon’s stock price has decreased by over 35% year-to-date.

Inditex, on the other hand, had a revenue of €8.2 billion for the quarter, up 7.1% year-on-year. While their operating income was €1.6 billion for the quarter, up 10.3% year-on-year. Inditex expressed that they are planning to spend €1.8 billion, over the next two years, on their supply chain as they look to bolster up their e-commerce offering, while also maintaining their physical presence with their stores.

Security Held In:
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Security
Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Lunar Capital Offshore Portfolio Clients
Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
208.29
This Week
214.80
% Change YTD
14.06% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
76 704
This Week
76 852 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-0.05% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 735
This Week
17 133 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
14.13% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 278
This Week
5 347 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
12.10% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.80
This Week
18.88 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.17% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.40
This Week
20.42 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.24% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
81.31
This Week
79.51 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
3.30% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

A Day out Shopping Read More »

Costco – One up on Inflation

Costco – One up on Inflation

The no-frills, ultra-low-cost warehouse retailer Costco, does everything it can to lower the prices of the products it sells. With the surge in inflation over the last two years, Costco is benefiting from the trend of people wanting to pay the lowest prices possible for goods. Here are some of the strategies Costco uses to keep their prices low.

  • Costco keeps a limited inventory of the products it sells. This enables them to sell inventory before they are required to pay for it.
  • They also don’t stock too much variety in terms of products, further allowing them to buy in bulk from their suppliers.
  • Costco keeps the design of its stores extremely simple, reducing the need to spend much on marketing.
  • Costco has an annual membership fee that incentivizes customers to shop more at their stores.
  • Costco has built a strong business culture, resulting in low employee turnover. Companies lose out when their trained employees leave. They also offer higher-than-average compensation, which incentivizes employees to stay.

Last week, Costco released their Q3 2024 results. Total revenue for the quarter was $58.5 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year. Costco’s gross margin was 12.5%, far lower than many retailers. Operating income increased by 30.8% to reach $2.2 billion for the quarter. This represented an operating margin of 3.8% for the quarter.

Costco has built a cult-like fanbase among its customers, gaining customers across different income levels. Not only do they sell hotdogs for $1.50 and rotisserie chickens for $5, they also sell gold bars as customers attempt to beat inflation on another front.

Costco is trading at a relatively high multiple. Their price to earnings (PE) ratio is currently hovering around the 50 mark, whereas Walmart is trading at a PE ratio of around 28. Costco operates in an extremely competitive industry with very low margins. Any missteps in their operating activities could cause their bottom line to suffer tremendously.

Walmart is held in the Lunar Capital BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio Clients

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
207.00
This Week
208.29
% Change YTD
10.60% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
79 112
This Week
76 704 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-0.25% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 921
This Week
16 735 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
11.48% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 305
This Week
5 278 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
10.64% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.41
This Week
18.80 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.73% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.96
This Week
20.40 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
1.14% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
82.16
This Week
81.31 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
5.64% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Costco – One up on Inflation Read More »

Nvidia – Silicon Supreme

Nvidia – Silicon Supreme

Nvidia, the graphics processing unit (GPU) designer, had another standout quarter. Since the beginning of the year, Nvidia’s share price has increased by over 120%. Big tech companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are buying Nvidia’s chips for their data centers so that they can enhance their artificial intelligence capabilities. Companies and researchers are then able to train and run their large language models from these data centers. To get an idea on how these big some of these AI investments have been, Meta (owners of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp) top of acquired 24 thousand H100 GPU chips, which go for between $25000 and $40000 each, to power their Lambda AI service.

Nvidia released their Q1 2025 results last week. Revenue for the quarter was $26 billion, up 262% compared to the same quarter last year. Net income for Nvidia was $14.9 billion, up 628%. Data center revenue, which includes the revenue recognized from the sale of chips for artificial intelligence, was $22.6 billion, up 427% year on year. Nvidia’s gross margin was 78.4% and its net margin 57.1%.

The H100 platform is currently the top-of-the-line chip platform in the market. However, Nvidia has developed a new platform, Blackwell, expected to be released later this year. The Blackwell platform performs 4x faster in training LLM models and 30x faster in inferencing (where the trained LLMs draw conclusions from new inputs) compared to the H100 platform. Nvidia faces the risk of overdeveloping their chips, where customers may wait out certain generations of chips to get the next generation, which is significantly better. Nvidia, however, is confident that current demand far outstrips current supply for both the H100 and Blackwell chips.

Nvidia developed the CUDA software platform to expand the use of its chips in various applications, including AI. However, CUDA is exclusive to Nvidia’s chips. Due to the heavy reliance on Nvidia’s chips, their limited supply, and high costs, other developers have created an open software platform called Triton. This platform allows developers to run AI applications on an array of other chips.

Nvidia also faces significant competition in the chip design field. They are not only competing with established designers like AMD, but also with well-capitalized companies such as Amazon and Microsoft, who are developing their own chips to reduce their reliance on Nvidia. Nvidia has stated that their chip cycle is one year between each generation, so competing companies are aiming at a moving target going at breakneck speed.

Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio Clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
204.58
This Week
207.00
% Change YTD
9.91% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
79 531
This Week
79 112 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.89% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 686
This Week
16 921 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
12.72% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 303
This Week
5 305 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.21% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.17
This Week
18.41 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
0.60% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.78
This Week
19.96 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-1.04% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
83.93
This Week
82.16 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
6.74% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Nvidia – Silicon Supreme Read More »

The Best Offense starts in Defense

Walmart – The Best Offense starts in Defense

Last week, Walmart released their Q1 2025 results. The group’s revenue reached $161.5 billion for the quarter, growing 6% year-on-year. Operating income rose by 9.6% to $6.8 billion. Walmart’s gross margin increased from 23.7% a year ago to 24.1% this quarter. This improvement was due to fewer inventory markdowns compared to last year. Additionally, Walmart’s advertising business, which typically has a higher gross margin than general retail, has been growing faster than other parts of the business, contributing to the overall margin increase. With this in mind, Walmart’s management team stressed that they are trying to keep their product gross margin as low as possible so as to incentivise more customers to shop with them. Walmart indicated that they have seen a meaningful increase in higher-income earners shopping at their stores. Walmart’s e-commerce business grew by 22% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, showing good returns on their technology spend.

Walmart and other large retailers generally perform well in inflationary environments. They can buy in bulk, which helps lower their prices. Additionally, when they place orders in advance, they secure prices at that time. Once the goods are delivered and ready to be sold, the new, higher inflationary prices are evident in the economy. This allows them to sell at those higher prices or slightly less, giving the impression of saving customers money compared to smaller and/or less efficient businesses that order closer to the time of sale.

Walmart faces intense competition worldwide. They not only compete against local retailers but also against giants like Amazon, which has a highly profitable cloud business. From its inception, Walmart has focused on serving underrepresented locations, offering customers an all-in-one store with “everyday low prices.”

Walmart is held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio Clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
201.89
This Week
204.58
% Change YTD
8.63% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
78 464
This Week
79 531 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
3.43% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 341
This Week
16 686 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.16% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 223
This Week
5 303 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
11.18% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.46
This Week
18.17 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-0.71% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.91
This Week
19.78 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-1.93% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
82.75
This Week
83.93 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.04% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

Our email address is: [email protected]

Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

Walmart – The Best Offense starts in Defense Read More »

Disney – Where is the Magic?

Disney – Where’s the Magic?

Disney, once the vanguard of the entertainment industry, now faces the challenge of overseeing its various business divisions. From linear networks to streaming, theme parks to cruises, and sports to merchandise; Disney is trying to sustain its established cash cows while simultaneously investing in and nurturing the growth of its other ventures. But in doing so, it has been burning through cash, fighting boardroom proxy battles, and losing clout with consumers.

For Q2 2024, revenue for Disney increased by 1.3% to reach $22.1 billion. And operating income increased by 15% to reach $3.8 billion. Direct-to-consumer, which includes streaming services such as Disney+ and Hulu, posted its first ever quarterly operating profit, which was $47mn. This was driven by cost-cutting that Disney has implemented in their operations and content spend. Hulu programmes such as “The Bear” and “Shogun” drove the new signups to Disney’s streaming services. Disney’s experiences segment, the cash cow, generated $8.4bn in revenue, with an operating profit of $2.3bn for the quarter. Disney noted that they expect sales for their experiences segment to drop during the year, as the pent-up demand for experiences, built up during the Covid Pandemic, subsides.

Under Bob Chapek’s (Disney’s previous CEO) tenure, Disney has poured substantial resources into productions across its various studios: Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, and Fox. However, many of these endeavours have failed to replicate the box office triumphs of previous years, particularly during Marvel’s illustrious heyday. These productions were intended to serve as the cornerstone for Disney’s streaming services to flourish, but the over expansion lead to disappointing figures.

During the earnings call, Disney acknowledged that Netflix has established the gold standard for streaming. Netflix consistently leads the industry, often pioneering new features, such as the recent crackdown on password sharing, a move that has proven effective in recouping lost revenue. Netflix have been what other streaming services are trying to replicate. However, If you were to ask about Netflix’s primary competitor, Netflix would likely point to YouTube. Netflix has previously hinted at this perspective. YouTube’s exceptional consumer engagement aligns with Netflix’s preferred focus of measuring the duration of viewers’ attention on screen.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
196.55
This Week
201.89
% Change YTD
7.20% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
76 428
This Week
78 464 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
2.04% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
16 156
This Week
16 341 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
8.86% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 128
This Week
5 223 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
9.49% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.50
This Week
18.46 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
0.87% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
19.93
This Week
19.91 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-1.29% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
82.81
This Week
82.75 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
7.51% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
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Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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Amazon – Not your everyday Bookseller

Amazon – Not your everyday Bookseller

Amazon, once an online bookseller, has gradually transformed into the expansive “everything store.” Utilizing its efficient fulfillment infrastructure, Amazon swiftly delivers both its own products and third-party products worldwide. While its e-commerce segment drives the bulk of revenue, the true profit engine lies in its cloud division: AWS. In the latest quarter, Amazon’s North American e-commerce unit generated $86 billion in revenue with a 5.7% operating margin, while AWS generated $25 billion in revenue with a notable 37.6% operating margin. Amazon’s free cash flow was $50.1bn for the last twelve months, demonstrating its significant financial strength.

Amazon is renowned for identifying pain points within their own operations and devising solutions to overcome them, and then selling that solution as a service to third parties. In this way, they turn cost centres into profit centres. When they managed their internet servers, they noticed significant periods of dormancy in their IT infrastructure, punctuated by occasional spikes in usage. Recognizing this, Amazon seized the opportunity to create AWS. Instead of companies needing to set up and manage their IT infrastructure, Amazon does it for a fee, based on usage. Today, global enterprises rely on AWS to power their entire operations. Now, AWS is increasingly being employed by companies to train their generative AI models. Amazon observed that many companies are still in the training phase of their generative AI products, and that the products aren’t available for the market just yet.

Amazon has followed the same principle with regards to their fulfillment service. Companies are able to sell their products internationally on Amazon’s platform, while not needing to go through the process of figuring out the complicated rates and tariffs they are required to pay in each country.

Amazon’s reach extends far beyond e-commerce and cloud computing. They also run a video-streaming platform, own a significant share of an electric car company (Rivian), and operate an advertising business integrated with their e-commerce operations, which generated $11.8 billion in revenue this recent quarter. Advertising, known for its high operating margins, is likely to contribute to Amazon’s growing profitability.

Yet, amidst their diverse ventures, Amazon faces formidable competition. Beyond rival e-commerce and traditional retail businesses, they contend with tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft. Big Tech is also facing increased regulatory pressure around the world.

Amazon’s origins in a low-margin environment have instilled a cost-effective mindset into their DNA. They have shown, time and again, how to develop new products and services while keeping costs low.

Amazon and Microsoft are held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
198.44
This Week
196.55
% Change YTD
4.36% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
75 371
This Week
76 428 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-0.60% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 928
This Week
16 156 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.63% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
5 100
This Week
5 128 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
7.50% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
18.81
This Week
18.50 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
1.09% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.12
This Week
19.93 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-1.19% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
89.29
This Week
82.81 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
7.59% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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Microsoft: On Cloud Nine

Microsoft: On Cloud Nine

Microsoft unveiled their Q3 2024 results last week. Revenue for the quarter reached $61.9 billion, marking a 17% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, net income for the same period amounted to $21.9 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year rise. The primary growth driver for Microsoft’s revenue was their cloud services segment, encompassing products and services such as OneDrive and Azure. Cloud services revenue for the quarter totalled $35.1 billion, increasing by 23% year-over-year. As of Friday, 26 April, Microsoft held the title of the world’s most valued stock, boasting a valuation of just over $3 trillion.

Microsoft has been among the beneficiaries of the Large Language Model hype that surged last year and this year. Microsoft has invested approximately $13 billion in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. Microsoft does not have any ownership stake in OpenAI. But, they are entitled to a share of profit distributions. Microsoft’s cloud service, Azure, enables businesses to deploy their AI applications using their servers. However, Microsoft has stated that the demand for their AI services currently surpasses their current capacity. Consequently, they are ramping up their capital expenditure. In the latest quarter, they spent $14 billion on capital expenditure, exceeding the anticipated $11 billion.

Microsoft encounters formidable competition from other well-resourced rivals such as Amazon and Alphabet in the cloud computing/AI arena. As companies expand, scaling their market share becomes progressively challenging compared to their initial growth trajectory. Frequently, firms seeking to increase their market presence through acquisitions find themselves paying a premium to entice shareholders. Recently, Microsoft concluded its acquisition of the gaming giant Activision for just under $70 billion. Only time will reveal whether Microsoft has potentially overpaid for the company, or whether they were able to use their platform to create a more compelling gaming experience for users.

Microsoft not only provides cloud and gaming services, it’s Office suite of business tools is widely used in businesses and homes worldwide, it also provides on-line security, data management, virtual meeting services (Teams) and search services, amongst others.

Microsoft and Amazon held in the Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund and by Lunar Capital’s Offshore Portfolio clients.

Key Indicators
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
Last Week
This Week
% Change YTD
Index / Fund / Rate
Start of Year
188.33
Last Week
199.38
This Week
198.44
% Change YTD
5.37% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
JSE ALSI
Start of Year
76 893
Last Week
73 364
This Week
75 371 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
-1.98% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
NASDAQ Composite
Start of Year
15 011
Last Week
15 282
This Week
15 928 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.11% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
S&P 500
Start of Year
4 770
Last Week
4 967
This Week
5 100 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
6.92% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
Prime Lending Rate
Start of Year
11.75%
Last Week
11.75%
This Week
11.75%
% Change YTD
0.00%
Index / Fund / Rate
USD/ZAR
Start of Year
18.30
Last Week
19.14
This Week
18.81 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
2.79% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Index / Fund / Rate
EUR/ZAR
Start of Year
20.17
Last Week
20.41
This Week
20.12 Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
% Change YTD
-0.25% Lunar Capital stocktake arrow down
Index / Fund / Rate
Brent Crude ($'barrel)
Start of Year
76.97
Last Week
87.14
This Week
89.29 Lunar Capital increasesymbol
% Change YTD
16.01% Lunar Capital increasesymbol
Source: Iress

Click here to access your account to view statements, obtain tax certificates, add or make changes to your investments.

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Disclosures
Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider. FSP (46567)
Read our full Disclosure statement: https://lunarcapital.co.za/disclosures/
Our Privacy Notice: https://lunarcapital.co.za/privacy-policy/
The Lunar BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Fact Sheet  can be read here.
This stocktake is prepared for the clients of Lunar Capital (Pty) Ltd. This stocktake does not constitute financial advice and is generated for information purposes only.

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